the reason for this decline might be the fact 

 that IIP aerial reconnaissance was 

 focusing on the areas near the LAKI: thus, 

 there were fewer opportunities to detect 

 icebergs north of 48° N. The number of 

 icebergs estimated to have passed south 

 of 48° N during June was 247, a 

 substantial reduction from May's 1017. 



July 



The trend of warmer-than-normal 

 SST continued in July, with most east 

 Newfoundland areas experiencing 

 temperatures 1-2° C above normal. In 

 Newfoundland and southern Labrador, the 

 air temperature was 1-2° C above normal 

 for July. The number of icebergs south of 

 52° N continued to decline precipitously. 

 By mid-July it was evident that the iceberg 

 season was nearing its end. In mid-month 

 (Fig. 35), the LAKI were at the median, and 

 by month's end they declined to the 

 minimum extent, with only 3 icebergs south 

 of 48° N. During July, 15 icebergs passed 

 south of 48° N. The iceberg season closed 

 on 31 July 1998. 



Summary 



Two primary indicators of the 

 severity of an iceberg season are the 

 number of icebergs passing south of 48 N 



and season length. In 1998, Ice Patrol 

 estimated that 1384 icebergs passed south 

 of 48° N, which by all scales (Trivers,1994) 

 classifies the 1998 season as severe. This 

 places the 1998 season in the top 10 of the 

 most severe seasons on record (8 lh ), but 

 well below the successive severe seasons 

 in the early 1990s. On the other hand, the 

 169-day season length classifies the 

 season as average (Trivers,1994), despite 

 the season's early start. It is likely that the 

 warmer-than-normal SST in east 

 Newfoundland waters hastened the 

 season's end in July and prevented the 

 season from exceeding 180 days in length, 

 which would place it in the severe 

 classification. 



Much publicity was given to the fact 

 that the 1997-1998 El Nino was one of the 

 strongest in the recent record, exceeded 

 only by the 1982-1983 event since 1950 

 (Wolter and Timlin, 1998). There was 

 some apprehension about the 1998 

 season because, on some occasions, 

 severe El Nino events have been followed 

 by severe iceberg seasons, although the 

 link is by no means well established. While 

 the 1998 iceberg season was well above 

 average and maybe even severe, it falls far 

 short of being a record-setter, even for the 

 decade of the 1990s. 



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