the various baj^s, sounds, and indentations that adjoin Baffin Bay 

 to slowly deteriorate, while others inanage to reach the Labrador 

 coast with little or no chance of arriving at the Grand Banks due 

 to poor timing or otherwise being trapped and deteriorating prior to 

 arrival at the Grand Banks. In spite of the individual fate of 'each 

 berg calved, some generalities can be made regarding those few that 

 reach the Grand Banks. First of all, they all have to drift loose 

 from the glaciers in West Greenland and make it to the south-flowing 

 Baffin Land Current with the proper timing of their arrival off 

 Labrador so as to enable survival in the cold waters during winter 

 and spring. Also, the Grand Banks bergs manage to avoid the numer- 

 ous permanent traps along the route and are of sufficient size to 

 guarantee survival. Considering all the natural obstacles, it is 

 surprising that so many bergs successfully reach the Grand Banks. 



Perhaps the reader now has a little insight into the reasons for the 

 berg-threat anomaly from one season to another. It is incumbent 

 upon Ice Patrol officers to search for data to definitely determine 

 these reasons, for bergs are the business of the Ice Patrol and all 

 possible knowledge about them should be vigorously pursued. 

 Besides, the founders of the International Ice Patrol in 1913 were 

 foresighted enough to provide for a study and observation of ice 

 conditions during the whole of the year as advisable. The late Rear 

 Adm. Ed. H. Smith, USCG, familiarly known as "Iceberg Smith," 

 studied the problem of icebergs more than any one else and has 

 undoubtedly made the greatest contributions to our present-day 

 knowledge of icebergs. Smith, during his many years of association 

 with the Ice Patrol, introduced the presently used oceanographic 

 method of determining ocean currents by dynamic topography. 

 Smith also made studies of the correlation between winter weather 

 over the North Atlantic and the resulting severit;y' of the iceberg 

 threat on the Grand Banks, and developed a formula for forecasting 

 the number of bergs south of 48° N. for the oncoming ice season. 

 Smith also made special ice observation cruises aboard Coast Guard 

 cutters to Baffin Bay to visit glaciers, witness calving, interview 

 officials of settlements located near glaciers, survey as much of Baffin 

 Bay as possible for iceberg counts, and generally to gather as much 

 knowledge of icebergs as possible. Though Smith's formula for 

 forecasting the number of bergs south of 48° N. for a given year was 

 nearly correct some years, many years it unfortunately has been 

 quite inaccurate. Smith recognized the shortcomings of his formula 

 and the main reason for it. See pages 11-26, Bulletin No. 30 in 

 this series. For, as he stated, an abnormal winter with severely 

 cold northwest winds predominating during the winter and spring 

 from Baffin Island to Newfoundland does not necessarily guarantee 

 a severe Grand Banks iceberg year if the supply of bergs is not avail- 



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