able. It must be obvious to all interested that any intelligent 

 forecast of the coming Grand Banks iceberg season must take into 

 account the available supply. 



The ability to accurately forecast the relative iceberg threat to the 

 Grand Banks has some value besides accumulating more knowledge 

 of icebergs. Certainly there is great advantage in being able to warn 

 the shipping world that a severe iceberg season is coming. Also, the 

 Ice Patrol Office can plan its operations with greater efficiency and 

 increase the efficiency of its services to shipping. Before getting too 

 optimistic about the possibilities of very accurately forecasting the 

 number of bergs south of 48° N. for the forthcoming ice season, 

 certain hard realities must be acknowledged. As of early March, 

 when the Ice Patrol usually is commenced, it is possible to accurately 

 determine the weather over the past months, but as of now, reliable 

 and dependable weather forecasts for 1 month ahead, let alone 3 or 

 4 months, are simply not available and until they are, berg forecasting 

 is considerably limited. Another imponderable factor is the possi- 

 bility of elimination of a large portion of a given year's supply by 

 permanent trapping or by being driven far out to sea and permanently 

 removed from the transporting agency. The trapping or removal 

 from the transporting agency might be only temporary, but of dura- 

 tion to sufficiently delay the crop's southward advance so as to 

 prevent its survival to the Grand Banks due to warming waters. As 

 an example, it would be difficult to forecast that during a given 

 period, just as the berg crop approaches Hudson Strait entrance from 

 the north, a storm will arrive producing strong easterly winds driving 

 most of these bergs into the permanent or semipermanent trap of 

 Hudson Strait. Also, it is most difficult to attempt to forecast the 

 calving of smaller bergs from larger ones. For example, about the 

 time a very large berg about 250 ft. high, 700 ft. long, and 500 ft. 

 wide is approaching the Grand Banks, it could conceivably break up 

 into four or five small bergs at once or it might gradually deteriorate 

 by melting and calving growlers and pieces of brash. Another short- 

 coming is the lack of oceanographic data in the northern areas during 

 the winter and spring months and the impracticability to obtain 

 same. The point in the above discussion is not to belittle attempts at 

 berg forecasting, but to emphasize the problems involved, problems 

 which may defy satisfactory solution for many years. 



The question can be asked, "Why not go to the source or heart of 

 the problem, i.e., the berg-producing glaciers of northwest Greenland 

 and count how many bergs are produced each year?" This apparently 

 was the course of action followed by Smith in his September 1940 

 iceberg census aboard the USCGC Northland. Also, aerial iceberg 

 censuses of all of Baffin Bay were accomplished in the summers of 

 1948 and 1949 for the purpose of determining year classes, berg travel- 

 times, and to improve berg forecasting. Undoubtedly, the Smith 



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