will readily reveal that good correlation exists between the weather 

 and the relative severity of the Grand Banks ice season. We have all 

 heard or read about so-called warm weather or cold weather cycles 

 and the fact that we have been in a warm cycle the past 20 or 30 years. 

 Various weather cycles have been suggested, but accurate weather 

 records probably do not exist for sufficient years to determine cycles 

 with periods of several years. In reading the old reports of the Inter- 

 national Ice Patrol, one is impressed by the fact that icebergs were 

 in greater abundance in the major shipping lanes at the Tail of the 

 Banks in the old days. One is also impressed with the fact that sea 

 ice was a common occurrence at the Tail of the Banks in March and 

 April in those days. As a rule, many bergs annually reached the Tail 

 of the Banks during the first 25 years of Ice Patrol. As a rule, during 

 the last 25 years, bergs have reached the Tail only during a few ice 

 seasons. Likewise sea ice has rarely survided to the Tail of the Banks 

 during the past 25 years. Wliile the annual estimate of icebergs south 

 of 48° N. latitude cannot be accepted as very accurate, it is, neverthe- 

 less, significant that the average estimated number of bergs during the 

 last 25 years has been less than 60 percent of the first 25-year average. 

 This is not to suggest a 25-year cycle, but is good argument that the 

 Grand Banks to Labrador region has had a warmer climate during 

 the past 25 years. It is likely that the climate has passed the warm 

 peak and is now headed toward the cold part of the cycle. If so the 

 International Ice Patrol is faced with a return to heavier ice seasons 

 in the coming years. 



As the old expression goes "Everybody talks about the weather, but 

 nobody does anything about it." Well, it must be admitted that 

 meteorologists are doing much more about the weather than they did 

 when the expression originated. While theoretical approaches to the 

 complex interrelated interactions of weather have not been the most 

 productive, ever-increasing systematic synoptic observations are per- 

 mitting a better understanding of weather, its causes, and effects. 

 While our civilization has not as yet advanced to the sophisticated 

 stage when capability exists to change weather, we do understand more 

 about weather's changes. The general relationship between the rela- 

 tive severity of a Grand Banks ice season and weather has been dis- 

 cussed. What can we in the Ice Patrol do about the weather? We 

 can seek to determine meaningful relationships between specific 

 meteorological elements and ice conditions. Broadly stated, in order 

 to conduct the Ice Patrol more effectively we must constantly strive 

 for more accurate ice forecasting capability by learning more about 

 weather, as well as other factors, and the consequent effect on ice 

 conditions. The goal should be to eventually develop quantitative 

 relationships for forecasting twice daily ice conditions on the Grand 

 Banks. As long range forecasting involves complex and immeasurable 



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