Banks iceberg season. Weekly and monthly forecasts of ice con- 

 ditions during the ice season should be made on the basis of previously 

 observed ice conditions, subsequent weekly determined or forecast 

 atmospheric pressure distribution, and Newfoundland air tempera- 

 tures, taking oceanographic conditions into account. 



Although correlation between winter weather and the relative sever- 

 ity of the Grand Banks iceberg season has been very good for the past 

 8 years, an important consideration has been overlooked. What about 

 the number of bergs annually calved in the northwestern Greenland 

 glaciers, and what about the Baffin Bay summer and early autumn 

 weather and oceanographic conditions? This information is neces- 

 sary in order to predict the number and sizes of bergs that properly 

 time their arrival into the south-seeking Baffinland-Labrador Current 

 system and have a reasonable chance of surviving to the Grand Banks. 

 Considering the lack of data on berg-calving and the sparsity of 

 meteorological and oceanographic data in Baffin Bay, forecast at- 

 tempts of the above could not be expected to be accurate. This is all 

 neatly accounted for by actually determining, in late October, the 

 supply favorably located for reaching the Grand Banks next spring. 

 The Grand Banks ineflectives, that is, the bergs that will deteriorate 

 prior to arriving at the Baffinland Current in western Baffin Bay 

 and those bergs whose arrival there is poorly timed, and other bergs 

 not a factor, are eliminated from consideration. Sufficient data has 

 been accumulated to reasonably locate the coming season's Grand 

 Banks berg crop months in advance. Eventually a normal supply 

 will be determined. After the first determination of the supply, a 

 forecast can be made based on normal winter weather and based on 

 both extremes. Tlie forecast can be refined as the weather is monitored 

 each month and as additional surveys are made. In any forecasting 

 based on weather-iceberg relationships, the known or estimated supply 

 should be taken into account. 



Normal monthly mean atmospheric pressure distribution charts by 

 tlie U.S. Weather Bureau, based on many years data, indicate that the 

 winter weather along the east coasts of Newfoundland, Labrador, 

 and Baffin Island is normally favorable for berg drift south toward the 

 Grand Banks and survival. This seems to indicate that winter 

 weather favorable for berg drift south is necessary for a normal 

 Grand Banks iceberg year. It is purely hypothetical to discuss the 

 possibility of a current system witliout any winds or vice versa and the 

 resultant effect on the iceberg problem. Without the existing West 

 Greenland-Baffinland-Labrador Current system, it is most difficult to 

 imagine icebergs reaching Newfoundland. On the other hand, the 

 current system alone could conceivably deliver bergs to the Grand 

 Banks. The few bergs that might be delivered would probably stand 

 a much better chance of staying in the main branch of the current 



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