years 1958, 1961, and 1962 would also be classified slightly favorable 

 if considered only through February in lieu of the neutral or unfavor- 

 able classification assigned for the entire period. 



6. Wind conditions for the second half of the crop from March- 

 June were favorable for berg drift toward the Grand Banks only 

 during 1957, 1959, and 1964, the heaviest three iceberg seasons of the 

 eight and the three latest seasons. 



The following conclusions are drawn : 



1. On the basis of a scale ranging from VF to VU, a SF+ or 

 higher classification is required for a normal or heavier than normal 

 Grand Banks iceberg season. 



2. An N or below classification corresponds with a light and well- 

 below normal iceberg season. 



3. A study of the period November-February reveals a favorable 

 classification for 6 of the 8 years considered with an unfavorable 

 classification assigned only to 1 year, 1963. This is overwhelming 

 evidence that winter winds are usually favorable for berg drift toward 

 the Grand Banks. The relative favorability through February re- 

 veals the trend and is a good indicator of the severity of the coming 

 ice season. 



4. A normal to severe ice season requires favorable winds for the 

 first half of the crop for the period March- April and requires favor- 

 able winds for the second half of the crop for the period March-June. 

 Thus an accurate forecast of the coming iceberg season before the sea- 

 son starts cannot be expected solely on the basis of wind conditions 

 through February. 



5. It must be noted that the classifications were assigned the months 

 November-February for the years 1957-62 with very little or no 

 observations of the berg crop available. Positions of the groups were 

 almost entirely assumed. With observations based on northern ice 

 surveys available in future years more accurate classifications can be 

 assigned and a more accurate trend will be indicated before the Grand 

 Banks ice season starts. 



6. For the years 1957-64, there is remarkable correlation between 

 the classification of winter and spring wind conditions along the BaflEin 

 Island, Labrador, and Newfoundland coasts and the relative severity 

 of the corresponding Grand Banks iceberg season. While only a 

 trend can be revealed at the start of the ice season, a qualitative fore- 

 cast can fairly accurately be made on the basis of November-February 

 wind conditions if the upstream berg supply is known and the climate 

 is taken into account. 



56 



