majority of these bergs will probably perish next summer and autumn 

 along the route toward the Grand Banks. The apparent shortage of 

 the 1965 Grand Banks berg crop is attributed mainly to the failure of 

 the 1964 Melville Bay bergs to make it into the Baffinland Current 

 before the end of October. 



8. Along the same line of thought, it is concluded that the majority 

 of a Grand Banks berg crop comes from and is located near the glacier.=i 

 from Melville Bay and northward the previous summer. The re- 

 mainder of the crop is made up mostly of leftovers from Davis Strait 

 and Baffin Bay and those bergs that manage to drift directly across 

 Baffin Bay or upper Davis Strait from the Disko Bay and Upernavik 

 glaciers at the proper time. The leftovers may be mostly made up of 

 Disko Bay to Upernavik glacier bergs which wintered over the pre- 

 vious winter and then survived the next summer in Baffin Bay while 

 making the long classic counterclockwise trip toward and into the 

 Baffinland Current. More surveys must be undertaken in Baffin Bay 

 to test the validity of these conclusions. 



9. On the basis of the 6-8 December survey and the conclusions made 

 earlier in this section, 135 bergs are forecast to drift south of 48° N. 

 during the 1965 ice season providing normal climatology prevails. 

 If there is an abnormally favorable climate for berg drift and sur- 

 vival to the Grand Banks, the number could go up to 200 ; if the climate 

 is unfavorable, the number would be less than 75. 



The commencement of the monthly Newfoundland-Labrador coastal 

 flights in September and the stepped up northern ice reconnaissance 

 this past autumn have contributed a wealth of data on icebergs. Some 

 assumptions and conclusions made in the past have been supported, 

 while others have been modified as a result. As the northern flights 

 are continued, the progress of the iceberg crop will be observed and 

 correlated with all known and assumed facts and upon termination of 

 the 1965 ice season several conclusions may be made. Details of the 

 1965 preseason flights will be discussed in next year's bulletin. 



THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNATIONAL ICE PATROL 



Over 50 years have elapsed since the Intemational Ice Patrol first 

 operated in 1913, It is mos:t appropriate at this time to take an in- 

 ventory and seriously reflect on what has been accomplished, what we 

 are presently doing and where we go from here. The basic problem 

 of the iceiberg menace to trans- Atlantic shipping has not been solved. 

 All that can be claimed is that the problem is being treated more 

 efficiently and more effectively than before. Tlie Intemational Ice 

 Patrol has not been able to eliminate the menace of icebergs to ships, 

 but it has been able to reduce the danger of icebergs. "Wliile the loss 

 or damage of vessels and the loss of life has been greatly reduced, it 

 has not been completely eliminateid. Nor can we reasonably expect 



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