60 



recorded in latitude 46° 19', longitude 47° 56'. The fact that there 

 were so many bergs east of Newfoundland on the Grand Banks and 

 that there were none south of the forty-fifth parallel was a truly 

 remarkable condition. We made a report on this subject to the 

 commander of the ice patrol on May 23, and, as it well describes 

 the foregoing situation, it is included herewith : 



I would like at this time particularly to invite your attention to the important 

 events that have featured the ice patrol of 1927 and, as guided by the present 

 conditions, to outline the probable general character and ice behavior for the 

 remainder of the season. 



As a result of research work abroad and at Harvard University carried out by 

 the ice patrol, a prediction was made in March that approximately 396 bergs 

 would drift south of Newfoundland in 1927. The termination of the field-ice 

 season (usually the first half of May) now permits us to make a more accurate 

 statement regarding the number of icebergs. The final forecast is close to 360 

 bergs, or a year quite similar to 1926, and one that is normal in number. To 

 date there has been recorded a total of 224 icebergs south of Newfoundland, so 

 that about two-thirds of the forecasted number have already put in an appearance. 

 Both the ice and its time in season, therefore, are running along in harmony so 

 far with predictions. 



The first third of the season of 1927 was characterized by an unusual predomi- 

 nance of northeasterly winds, and this fact, combined with the presence of great 

 masses of warm xA.tlantic water close in to the Grand Banks' slopes, interfered 

 very markedly with the normal southward distribution of the icebergs. These 

 facts were made the subject of a dispatch to headquarters on May 4 last. It is 

 remarkable that nearly all the bergs this year have been confined to the nortliern 

 part of the Banks and the coastal shelf, and only five bergs have drifted south of 

 the Tail. None of these, moreover, have at any time endangered the United 

 States-Europe steamship tracks. 



The second third of the ice season, in which we are now well advanced, is 

 distinguished for the cessation of the Labrador current southward around the 

 Tail of the Bank, where normally it flows at 0.5 knot per hour at this time 

 of year. A current survey covering about 40,000 square miles of area, equal to 

 the size of the State of Pennsylvania, was carried out by the Modoc May 10-21, 

 and the results of this work are shown on the current map of water around 

 Grand Banks, May 11-21, 1927. The direction and velocity of the circulation 

 have been calculated in accordance with methods contained in Coast Guard 

 Bulletin No. 14 and includes the resultant movement of the mass in which an 

 iceberg would normally float. It can be seen from the above current map that 

 the warm offshore current presses unusually far inshore against the continental 

 slopes. The current runs northward even, on the east side of the Bank in 

 latitude 43° 50', right in to the 100-fathom depth. Thus the warm current 

 has tended to dam the icy current from the north (the Labrador) and has caused 

 its main branch to be deflected south of Flemish Cap. The original of this chart 

 is at present of invaluable assistance in guiding the patrol ship in its scouting 

 work for icebergs. 



Naturally a subject of special interest at this time is to learn, if possible, the 

 behavior of the ice and the course of events during the last third of the season. 

 Considering the present ice situation, viz, about 70 bergs and growlers on the 

 northern part of the Grand Banks, plus 100 more bergs expected, and the position 

 of the two ocean currents, leads to the belief that few, if any, bergs will succeed in 

 drifting south of the Tail of the Grand Banks. In other words, present con- 

 ditions indicate that the ice menace for the United States-Europe tracks will 



