Appendix C 

 Implications of a Light Ice Season 



CDR Michael R. Hicks 



Abstract 



In 1999 and again in 2005, very few icebergs crossed south of 48°N and into the 

 transatlantic shipping lanes. Since these few icebergs were widely dispersed both spatially and in 

 time, Ice Patrol determined that there was no significant threat to transatlantic shipping and, 

 consequently, did not initiate daily ice-limit broadcasts. This action constituted a decision not to 

 "open" the 2005 ice season. Appendix C examines the implications of this decision in terms of 

 (1) the need to rc-define Ice Patrol's concept and definition of the ice season, (2) the historical 

 evolution of methods used to guard the Limit of All Known Ice (LAKI), and (3) improvements in 

 Ice Patrol's processes resulting from the 1999 and 2005 ice seasons. 



The Ice Patrol Season 



The International Ice Patrol derives its mission — to monitor iceberg danger in the 

 northwest Atlantic and provide the Limit of All Known Ice to the maritime community — from 

 Regulation 6 of the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) and U.S. 

 Code, Title 46, Section 738. Specifically, in SOLAS the U.S. Government agrees to guard "the 

 southeastern, southern and southwestern limits of the region of icebergs in the vicinity of the 

 Grand Banks of Newfoundland for the purpose of informing passing ships of the extent of this 

 dangerous region." Furthermore, SOLAS requires that these limits be guarded "during the whole 

 of the ice season, i.e., for the period from February 15th through July 1st of each year."" The 

 SOLAS convention originally designated these dates in 1956 in an effort to determine the scale of 

 U.S. Coast Guard support of the Ice Patrol for cost-reimbursement purposes." In contrast to the 

 SOLAS definition, Ice Patrol has defined its ice season as the period between the first and last 

 date that a LAKI is established. During this period, IIP disseminates updated LAKI products 

 daily. Historically, Ice Patrol has "opened" its season when ice created a hazard to transatlantic 

 mariners and correspondingly has "closed" the season when the threat disappeared. Prior to the 

 advent of aerial reconnaissance, opening (or, using early terminology, "inaugurating") the season 

 meant deploying a continuous surface-vessel patrol for ice observation. 



Aside from the fact that HP's definition is inconsistent with SOLAS language, ice activity 

 in both 1999 and 2005 underscored a flaw in HP's conventional description for the ice season. In 

 both years, Ice Patrol elected not to open its season — that is, Ice Patrol never established a LAKI 

 or began disseminating daily products. This course of action may cause one to conclude that no 

 ice season means that the risk of iceberg collision is diminished, while in fact, from Ice Patrol's 

 perspective, the risk is the same: it is merely displaced northward. There is still a significant and 

 growing amount of vessel traffic in an area historically prone to more intense iceberg activity. Ice 



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