The progress of the 2002-2003 

 season is compared to sea ice and iceberg 

 observations from the historical record. 

 This places the season in perspective and 

 helps to understand the variability of the 

 ice distribution in the western north 

 Atlantic. The sea ice historical data are 

 derived from the Sea Ice Climatic Atlas, 

 East Coast of Canada, 1971-2000 

 (Canadian Ice Service, 2001), which 

 provides a 30 year median of ice 

 concentration at seven day intervals for the 

 period from November 26 through July 16. 

 Historical iceberg information is derived 

 from Viekman and Baumer (1995), who 

 present iceberg limit climatology from mid- 

 March to July 30 based on 21 years of Ice 

 Patrol observations from 1975 through 

 1995. They provide the extreme, median, 

 and minimum extent of the LAKI for the 

 period. Finally, the average number of 

 icebergs estimated to have drifted south of 

 48°N for each month was calculated using 

 103 years (1900 through 2002) of Ice 

 Patrol records (IIP, 2004). 



The pre-season sea ice forecast 

 (Canadian Ice Service, 2002), which was 

 issued in early December, predicted: 



• near normal freeze-up along 

 the Labrador coast and in 

 east Newfoundland waters, 



• movement of the southern ice 

 edge into the Strait of Belle 

 Isle during the first week of 

 January 2003, 



• sea ice would reach Cape 

 Bonavista during the first 

 week of February, 



• maximum extent of the sea 

 ice attained during the third 

 week of March, with the ice 

 edge approximately at the 

 latitude of St. John's for most 

 of the month, 



• likely intrusions of the sea ice 

 to 47°W at the latitude of St. 

 John's, 



• sea ice retreat beginning 

 during the last week of the 

 month and proceeding at a 

 normal rate. 



A series of five CIS reconnaissance flights 

 conducted in late September through early 

 October 2002 documented a population of 

 646 icebergs and radar targets from 61 °N 

 to 70°N, with the highest concentration 

 between 64°N and 65°N (Desjardins, 

 2002). Desjardins (2002) predicted that 

 the first of these would reach 48°N during 

 early February 2003. 



December 2002 



Early in December, sea ice 

 conditions in northern Labrador were near 

 normal. The ice edge was immediately to 

 the north of Cape Chidley, the 

 northernmost point in Labrador, and ice 

 had begun to form in the bays and along 

 the coast. Ice continued to develop along 

 the northern coast in early December, but 

 by mid month it was a few days behind 

 normal. The second half of December 

 witnessed much warmer than normal air 

 temperatures in southern Labrador and 

 northern Newfoundland. Although ice 

 continued to develop along the Labrador 

 coast, the eastward extent was much less 

 than normal. The elevated temperatures 

 also delayed the movement of the southern 

 ice edge into the Strait of Belle Isle by 

 about a week. Mean December SSTs 

 were near normal off the southern 

 Labrador coast and on the northeast 

 Newfoundland Shelf. At month's end, the 

 Strait of Belle Isle was free of sea ice. No 

 icebergs passed south of 48°N during 

 December. 



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