Figures 1 and 2 show the change of 

 ocean area (nm^) affected by the limits as a 

 result of reconnaissance effort. Increases in 

 area indicate iceberg detections close to or 

 outside the LAKI. Conversely, area decreases 

 are the result of an absence of icebergs at 

 predicted locations. The ice reconnaissance 

 flights are the primary means for ascertain- 

 ing the accuracy of the iceberg limits. 



It is HP's supposition that a zero change 

 in the LAKI as a result of reconnaissance ef- 

 fort indicates proficient model perfomnance. 

 In the data of both years, there is an apparent 

 feature of greater LAKI shifts with associated 

 negative changes in influenced area in the 

 later part of the patrol seasons. This suggests 

 for this phase of the season when the iceberg 

 deterioration rate is greatest the inability of 

 the IIP models to keep pace with the fast 

 changing iceberg conditions. Furthemnore, it 

 reveals — in addition to locating the limit set- 

 ting icebergs — the function of reconnais- 

 sance patrols as corrective devices to mini- 

 mize the area of ice free ocean contained 

 within the LAKI. 



44 



