target sightings during 1996. The 4829 targets 

 entered into MP's drift model do not represent all 

 of the targets reported to IIP. Sightings of targets 

 outside HP's Area of Responsibility (AOR) were 

 not entered into the model. Most of these were 

 far to the north of HP's AOR, in areas not covered 

 by HP's model. Coastal iceberg sightings were 

 also screened, and only those with the potential 

 to drift into the trans-Atlantic shipping lanes were 

 entered into the IIP model. 



Table 3 includes icebergs detected south 

 of 48°N plus the number of icebergs which were 

 predicted to have drifted across 48°N for each 

 month of 1997. During the 1997 ice year, an es- 



Table 3 

 Number of Icebergs South of 48°N 



Number of Icebergs South of 

 48°N during 1997 



Total 



1011 



timated 1011 icebergs drifted south of 48°N; 

 whereas, during 1996, 611 icebergs had drifted 

 south of 48°N. 



IIP classifies the severity of the ice sea- 

 sons based on the historic iceberg counts of its 

 entire 83 year history. Ice years with fewer than 

 300 icebergs crossing 48°N are defined as light 

 ice years; those with 300 to 600 crossing 48°N as 

 moderate; and those with more than 600 cross- 

 ing 48°N as extreme. Thus, 1997 was in the "ex- 

 treme" classification, but was an average year for 

 iceberg conditions compared to the SLAR years 

 of 1983-97 where the average is 1093. 



The 1 997 season was the fifth year that 

 IIP used its iceberg Data Management and Pre- 

 diction System (DMPS). This system, which is 

 nearly identical to the IceBerg Analysis and Pre- 

 diction System (BAPS) used at the Canadian Ice 

 Centre, Ottawa, combines an iceberg drift model 

 with a deterioration model. The drift model uses 

 wind, ocean current, and iceberg size data to pre- 

 dict the movement of all icebergs entered into 

 DMPS. This model uses a new historical current 

 data base (Murphy, Viekman and Channel, 1 996), 

 which is modified weekly using satellite-tracked 

 ocean drifting buoy data, thus taking into account 

 local, short-term, current fluctuations. Murphy and 

 Anderson (1 985) described and evaluated the drift 

 model. The iceberg deterioration model uses daily 

 sea surface temperature and wave height infor- 

 mation from the U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical Me- 

 teorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) 

 to predict the melt of icebergs. Anderson (1983) 

 and Hanson (1987) described the IIP deteriora- 

 tion model in detail. 



In Ice Season 1998, IIP will use the Ice- 

 berg Data Management and Prediction System 

 (IDMPS). IDMPS will run on a faster UNIX sys- 

 tem which will interface with a Windows NT based 

 Geographical Information System (GIS) in order 

 for IIP to more efficiently process and predict ice- 

 berg drift and deterioration information. The fun- 

 damental aspects of the model will not change. 



Thirteen satellite-tracked ocean drifting 

 buoys were deployed to provide current data for 



