564 Proceedings. 
must be forgiven if I hint that this temptation is one into which not a few fall who 
eannot be said to be very juvenile observers. I will illustrate my meaning from the 
science of geology. How many imposing arguments we will say as to the duration of 
man upon the earth have been based upon such calculations as those made in regard to 
the length of time it would take to accumulate a certain thickness of river deposit over 
the bone whieh had been found, or the position of a bone in a bed of gravel. What room 
there is in such cases for a variety of circumstances not taken into the calculation, but 
which, nevertheless, may so affect the issue as to render the conclusion almost worthless, 
Take the former example. There are the considerations which arise from fiuctuations in 
the force of the stream, the climatic conditions, the character of the material deposited, 
the likelihood of the pre-existence of swamps, etc., and yet we find the number of inches 
of mud which the observer found to have been deposited within a given time during 
his own opportunity of enquiry to be taken as the unit of measure; or if we have 
gravel beds and the like under our notice, especially if the country be a mountainous 
one, we have to take into the account—not only the even flowing stream we see in years 
of fair weather, and with its banks protected at all dangerous points by modern appliances 
to keep the stream to its appointed bounds—but the stream as it was when perhaps 
which overtook the ill-starred settlers, but a year ago, in their peaceful homes at Motueka, 
the boasted happy valley. Numbers from Nelson went to be sorry witnesses of what they 
could not from mere reports believe, viz., that the little river, transformed into a torrent, 
had torn down from its banks such masses of detritus as to cover fields and gardens in a 
general ruin, in some instances to the depth of the fences which surrounded them. It 
might hereafter be concluded that the transport of so much material was the work of 
Another very unreliable class of evidence is that derived from the fossils exhumed 
from the floors of caves ; it is often almost impossible to say how many times these have 
been disturbed though the appearances may seem to betoken no intrusion, The finding 
of a broken tobacco pipe under circumstances which appeared indistinguishable from 
those under which the instruments and ornaments which had belonged to ancient 
Britons were obtained, was calculated to dispel conelusions which would otherwise have : 
appeared sound. It was bad enough to discover that the tooth, at first fondly taken to 
be that of a young cave hyzna, was only that of a dog, but the other thing was not to ~ S 
be got over. Now let us suppose that instead of that instrument of vile purpose, which 
the ancient Britons could never have been so degenerate as to have used, the tooth of 
Ursus speleus had been turned up, the argument would have been thought undeniable 
that the ancient inhabitants of Derbyshire—for the cave of which I am speaking is in 
that county —had to do battle with that extinct animal. I am not saying that there is 
: places under pressure of necéssity as hiding places in times of trouble. The point upon 
m which I am insisting is that under the inductive System, which is ihe plan scientists 
