340 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii. 



the year 1312, from which it appears that this 

 dreadful scourge desolated the country, at short 

 intervals, during the whole of the first period, and 

 extended its occasional ravages to within 22 

 years of the termination of the second.* 



It would be contrary to every rule of probability 

 to suppose that, during the frequent prevalence 

 of this disorder, the country could be particularly 

 healthy, and the general mortality extremely 

 small. Let us suppose it to have been such as 

 at present takes place in many other countries, 

 which are exempt from this calamity, about 1 in 

 32, instead of 1 in 45, as in the last period. The 

 births would of course keep their relative propor- 

 tion, and instead of 1 in 36, \ be about 1 in 26. 

 In estimating the population of the country by 

 the births, we should thus have two very different 

 multipliers for the different periods ; and though 

 the absolute number of births might be greater 

 in the first period, yet the fact would by no means 

 imply a greater population. 



In the present instance, the sum of the births 

 in 17 parishes, during the first 70 years, is given 

 as 49,860, which annually would be about 712. 

 This, multiplied by 26, would indicate a popula- 

 tion of 18,512. In the last period the sum of the 

 births is given as 43,910,'j; which will be about 

 626 annually. This, multiplied by 36, will indi- 



* Mernoires, &c. par la Societe Econ. dc Berne. Annee 1/66, 

 premiere partie, table iv. p. 22. 

 + Id. table i. p. 21. 

 J Id. table i. p. 1 6. 



