414 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii. 



would double the population of a country in 125 

 years, and is therefore as great a proportion of 

 births to deaths, as can be true for the average of 

 the whole century. None of the late calculations 

 imply a more rapid increase than this. 



We must not suppose, however, that this pro- 

 portion of births to deaths, or any assumed pro- 

 portion of births and deaths to the whole popula- 

 tion, has continued nearly uniform throughout the 

 century. It appears from the registers of every 

 country which have been kept for any length of 

 time, that considerable variations occur at different 

 periods. Dr. Short, about the middle of the cen- 

 tury, estimated the proportion of births to deaths 

 as 11 to 10;* and if the births were at the same 

 time a twenty-eighth part of the population, the 

 mortality was then as high as 1 in 30^. We now 

 suppose that the proportion of births to deaths is 

 above 13 to 10 ; but if we were to assume this 

 proportion as a criterion by which to estimate 

 the increase of population for the next hundred 

 years, we should probably fall into a very gross 

 error. We cannot reasonably suppose that the 

 resources of this country should increase for any 

 long continuance with such rapidity as to allow of 

 a permanent proportion of births to deaths as 13 

 to 1 0, unless indeed this proportion were princi- 

 pally caused by great foreign drains. 



From all the data that could be collected, the 



* New Observ. tables ii. and iii. p. 22 and 44 ; Price's Observ. 

 on Revers. Paym. vol. ii. p. 311. 



