448 Of the Checks to Population Bk. ii. 



pulation from 1781 to 1811, given in the former 

 part of this chapter. It is founded on a principle 

 so very much safer than an estimate for the births 

 alone, that it must at any rate shew the progress 

 of the population more correctly than that given 

 in the Preliminary Observations. 



The more indeed the population returns are 

 considered, the more uncertain will appear all 

 estimates of the past population founded on the 

 assumptions that the proportion of the births will 

 always be nearly the same. If the population 

 since the year 1801 were to be estimated in the 

 same way as Mr. Rickman has estimated it before 

 that year, it would appear that the population in 

 1821, instead of being, according to the enumera- 

 tion, 12,218,500, would only be 11,625,334, that 

 is, 593,166 or nearly 600,000 short of the enume- 

 ration of 1821. And the reason is, that the pro- 

 portion of births to the population, which, esti- 

 mated in the way suggested by Mr. Rickman, and 

 without allowing for omissions, was, in 1821, only 

 as 1 to 36.58, was, in 1801, as much as 1 to 34.8. 

 • Supposing the enumerations to be correct, the 

 varying proportions of the births (without allow- 

 ance for omissions, and comparing the population 

 at the end of each term with the average births 

 for the five preceding years,) would be for 1801 

 as 1 to 34.8, for 1811 as 1 to 35.3, and for 1821 

 as 1 to 36.58. 



Similar and even greater variations will be 

 found to take place in regard to the proportions of 

 the marriages to the population. 



