Ch. xii. Births, Deaths, and Marriages. 507 



be to err in assuming a given proportion of births, 

 for the purpose of estimating the past population 

 of any country. In the present instance, it would 

 have led to the conclusion, that the population 

 was scarcely diminished by the plague, although 

 from the number of deaths it was known to be 

 diminished one third. 



Variations of the same kind, though not in the 

 same degree, appear in the proportions of births, 

 deaths and marriages, in all the tables which 

 Sussmilch has collected ; and as writers on these 

 subjects have been too apt to form calculations 

 for past and future times from the proportions of 

 a few years, it may be useful to draw the attention 

 of the reader to a few more instances of such 

 variations. 



In the Churmark of Brandenburgh,* during 15 

 years, ending with 1712, the proportion of births 

 to deaths was nearly 17 to 10. For 6 years, end- 

 ing with 1718, the proportion sunk to 13 to 10; 

 for 4 years, ending with 1752, it was only 11 to 

 10; and for 4 years, ending with 1756, 12 to 10. 

 For 3 years, ending with 1759, the deaths very 

 greatly exceeded the births. The proportion of 

 the births to the whole population is not given ; 

 but it is not probable that the great variations 

 observable in the proportion of births to deaths 

 should have arisen solely from the variations in 

 the deaths. The proportion of births to marriages 

 is tolerably uniform, the extremes being only 38 



* Sussmilch's Gottliche Orduung, vol. i. tables, p. 88. 



