PRICES OF FARM PRODUCTS. 



9 



decision is made before there is a decrease in the number of colts, 

 and four years before there is a decrease in 3-year-old colts. For 

 several years the decrease in number of colts raised increases the 

 apparent surplus of horses, for a mare can do more work when she 

 does not raise a colt. By the time the supply of mature horses is so 

 short as to be reflected in prices, there is a shortage in several crops 

 of colts. If colt raising is again begun, it still further increases the 

 apparent shortage of horses, becauses large numbers of mares are 

 bred and they cannot then do a full year's work. In 1878 the pur- 

 chasing power of horses began to rise and continued for 10 years. 

 It then fell for 10 years, rose for 14 years, fell for 9 years, and has now 

 risen 1 year. Apparently the tide has turned. The value per head 

 in dollars still fell in 1921, but the dollars have acquired so much 

 more purchasing power that horses have risen in exchange value. 



INDEX NUMBERS OF PURCHASING POWER OF HOGS a HORSES 



HOGS, VALUE PER HEAD 1910-14-= 100 HORSES, VALUE PER HEAD I9!0-I4-=IOO 



Fig. i. — Purchasing power of hogs and horses in the United States. Periods of relatively high and low 

 prices for hogs come at frequent intervals. Horses have longer and more violent periods of over and 

 under production . 



The primary reason for the decline in the price of horses was over- 

 production. The decline would undoubtedly have occurred in any 

 event, but trucks, autos, and tractors increased the depression, so 

 that the purchasing power of a horse in January, 1920, was the lowest 

 ever reported. Judging by past experiences, the expectation is that 

 horses will gradually rise in purchasing power; that is, if other 

 prices remain stationary horses will increase in price, or if other 

 prices fall horses will fall less rapidly. Before many years a decided 

 shortage of horses is to be expected. 



Hogs multiply very rapidly, so that errors in estimating the supply 

 that can be absorbed are more quickly corrected. Hogs usually fall 

 in price for one to three years and then rise one to three years. The 

 complete cycle from low to low with hogs is about one-fourth as long 

 as with horses. The weights at which hogs are sold can be changed 

 59143°— 21— Bull. 999 2 



