PART I. SIGNIFICANCE OF DECLINING LUMBER PRODUCTION. 



In the recent statistics of American lumbering two years are 

 signalized by events of outstanding significance both to the lumber 

 industry and to the public which it serves. 



The first was 1907, when the highest point in lumber production 

 was reached, and the production curve started on a long, steep, 

 downward slant, the end of which can not be determined. 



The second was 1920. The census of that year has brought out 

 three facts which are not only important but ominous when con- 

 sidered in relation to each other and to the events of preceding years. 



1. Production continued to decrease in the face of an accumulated 

 need for the use of lumber which is unparalleled. 



2. The average value of lumber at the mills continued to rise to a 

 point far above the high mark set in 1919. There was, in fact, an 

 upheaval of lumber prices such as has never before been experienced, 

 culminating in a peak which dwarfed the previous peaks, and fol- 

 lowed by a decline as rapid as the rise. This spectacular event is 

 of more than passing interest, both as an historical fact and as a 

 symptom of economic stress. Yet in fundamental importance it is 

 far surpassed by the third fact, namely, that — 



3. Lumber production increased in 11 Western States, but only 1 

 Eastern State cut more than in 1919. In the other 36 States pro- 

 duction decreased. This is fresh evidence of the shift of the main 

 center of lumber production from the southern pine belt to the West. 

 It means not only that the great consuming centers of the East must 

 haul a heavy percentage of their lumber twice as far as before, but 

 also that we are now tapping our last reserve of virgin softwood 

 forest. 



This change comes at the end of 300 years of exploitation. It 

 touches the welfare of every individual in our growing population. 

 What does the future hold for us ? What steps should be taken to 

 meet national needs? The bare figures suggest questions of this 

 kind but do not answer them. For that reason it is pertinent to 

 discuss mth the statistics of 1920 the related conditions in produc- 

 tion, prices, and supply. 



LUMBER PRODUCTION DECREASED. 



The productipn of lumber in 1920 was 33,800,000,000 feet board 

 measure, which is 2.2 per cent less than the production in the previous 

 year. This, in itself, does not seem a great reduction. The feature 

 of real meaning with regard to production is that 1920 shows one 

 more slip downward, and that we have reached a point where the 

 cut is 27 per cent less than the peak production which occurred in 

 1907. Figure 1 shows graphically the decline of the last 13 years. 

 While it was not continuous, its trend is unmistakable and its amount 

 notable. _ The average rate of reduction is 2 per cent per year. The 

 decrease in 1920 was therefore approximately the average for the 

 period since the peak. It was, however, considerably less than the 

 average for the period since 1912, during which the downward slant 

 has been more pronounced. 



3 



