LUMBER CUT OF UNITED STATES, 1870-1920. 5 



This persistent decline in lumber production is the more worthy 

 of attention because the population of the United States has increased 

 by 15 per cent in the last decade. There now exists an amount of 

 unsatisfied demand for construction imequaled at any previous 

 period in our history. Normally, under such conditions, considerable 

 increase would be expected. It is possible, of course, that with the 

 increase of urban residence, under building restrictions, more brick, 

 stone, steel, and concrete are being used for modern types of dwell- 

 ings. It is also true that the best grades of the most desirable species 

 are no longer so readily obtainable. The substitution of other 

 materials is probably one reason for the decreasing use of wood by an 

 increasing population. But there is at least one other cogent reason, 

 and that is the.steadily increasing cost of lumber to the consumer. 



Other tilings being equal, the annual per capita consumption of a 

 commodity affords a measure of its abundance, and a declining per 

 capita consumption indicates an increased economic burden. If 

 supplies are relatively ample, the average person can use the com- 

 modity freely. As the supply decreases, rising prices tend to restrict 

 this use. 



Figm-e 2 shows the per capita lumber consumption of the United 

 States continuously for 100 years, contrasted with partial data for 

 other countries. The average consumption in the United States has 

 declined rapidly and constantly from 500 feet or more per person in 

 1907 to 316 feet in 1920, a decline of 37 per cent in 13 years, or nearly 

 3 per cent a year. The decline began when the Southern States 

 passed their maximum production, the Central States, the Lake 

 States, and the Northeast having passed their peaks 10 years before. 

 (See Fig. 6.) As soon as national production began to decrease, the 

 steadily increasing population caused the per capita curve to take a 

 downward slant considerably steeper than the one followed in the 

 upward movement previous to the peak. Canada and the United 

 States show the largest per capita consumption in the world because 

 of their great forest possessions in combination with advanced 

 standards of living and means for rapid exploitation of natural re- 

 sources. The per capita consumption of each is decreasing. The 

 United States now occupies a position very little above that of New- 

 foundland. Then come Sweden and Russia, followed by Germany 

 and France. Practically the total supply of the latter two comes 

 from man-made forests grown upon areas very much restricted 

 because of the pressing need for the use of aU agricultural lands. 

 Next below comes England, which imports practically all of the lum- 

 ber used, and last of all is Japan, also a heavy importer. If the curve 

 continues to fall at the same rate, the amount of timber used in 1930 

 by each person in the United States will be below that shown for 

 Russia. It is not a cheerful prospect for Americans who desire to 

 build homes. 



A reason why Americans are not buying and using more lumber is 

 indicated in Figure 3, in which '' A " illustrates the great increase in the 

 mill value of the lumber consumed by each person subsequent to 1915. 

 The decline from the peak reached in 1906 coincided with the financial 

 panic in 1907. ''B'^ shows the same values reduced to the basis of 

 the purchasuig power of money, computed with the figures of 1913 as 

 100. The average American is using about the same amount of lum- 

 ber as he did in 1866, fuUy one-sixth less than in 1890, and 40 per 



