2 BULLETIN 302, U. S. DEPAKTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. 



CONDITIONS PRECEDING THE MOVEMENT OF THE CROP. 



A study of the commercial crop conditions throughout the sum- 

 mer of 1914 revealed the fact that the country would produce one of 

 the largest apple crops in its history. Information in this respect 

 was secured by the Office from special correspondents in the commer- 

 cial orchard districts. Remembering that the total production far 

 exceeds the market surplus, especial distinction was made in gather- 

 ing the information. It is generally thought that the market surplus 

 or the commercial crop ranges between 40 and 50 per cent of the 

 total production in ordinary years. The results of investigations 

 conducted by the Bureau of Crop Estimates indicate that 41 per cent 

 of the 1913 apple crop and 38 per cent of the 1914 crop were ' 'shipped 

 out of counties where grown." * Formerly the estimates of the 

 Department had been made in terms of percentages. However, in 

 compliance with a demand for such information, the Bureau of Crop 

 Estimates issued in terms of bushels its first quantitative report in 

 August, 1914. The information published was secured from the 

 Bureau's crop correspondents located throughout the United States, 

 and related to total production only. 



EFFECT OF THE WAR UPON EXPORT PROSPECTS. 



With the opening of the European war it was not thought that the 

 United Kingdom and the Continent would draw their usual supply 

 of American apples, and a severe decrease in export demand appeared 

 to be so imminent that the Office of Markets and Rural Organization 

 issued a warning to growers and shippers, advising them to be 

 exceedingly cautious about shipping apples to seaboard for export, 

 unless steamer space and a certain demand on the other side were 

 assured. The general trade forecasts gave the impression that .the 

 European markets were not to be counted on seriously as offering 

 an outlet for a large amount of apples. In the past the influence of 

 English and continental markets upon conditions at home have been 

 strong, although the quantity of fruit shipped is not large as com- 

 pared with the market surplus, and when it appeared that the 

 European outlet would be closed a serious depression ensued. 



EFFECT OF THE WAR UPON THE HOME MARKETS. 



The most serious effect of the war upon the business conditions 

 which preceded the movement of the crop and which followed 

 throughout the marketing period was a contraction of credits in the 

 United States and a resultant lack of confidence on the part of the 

 trade. The South, which consumes a large quantity of apples, was 

 especially restricted in credits, owing to the condition of the cotton 



1 Farmers' Bulletin 672, p. 6. 



