THE POTATO QUARANTINE. 



17 



a year ago and 16 J cents higher than. three years ago, but 11 \ cents lower than two 

 years ago, when potatoes on January 1 were selling for 77£ cents per bushel and the 

 supply was unusually short, owing to the drought of the previous year. 



Present conditions do not seem to forecast material, if any, advance in prices in 

 the important producing States this year. In 1911, when supplies were but mod- 

 erately larger than now, and in 1913 the price movement after January 1 was down- 

 ward instead of upward. The only other factor which may enter to change the 

 experience of 1911 and 1913 is the somewhat different distribution of the crop which 

 exists this year. 



Southern growers who plant in the spring for the early market would seem to be 

 justified, from present conditions, in putting out a normal acreage, but should not 

 expect the big advance in prices which prevailed two years ago. 



The estimates indicate that about 42.1 per cent of the marketable supply of pota- 

 toes of the 1913 crop remained in the hands of farmers and 9.5 per cent in the hands 

 of dealers on January 1 in the important potato-growing States. These figures com- 

 pare with 39.8 and 9.8 per cent similarly estimated a year ago, 33.1 and 8.6 per cent 

 two years ago, 40.2 and 10.9 per cent three years ago, and 41.2 and 9.9 per cent four 

 years ago. If, for the purpose of comparison, these percentages were applied to the 

 estimates of total production, it would show total stocks of 123,000,000 bushels on Jan- 

 uary 1, 1914 (in the 19 States analyzed below), compared with 150,000,000 a year ago, 

 91,000,000 two years ago, 133,000,000 three years ago, and 142,000,000 four years ago. 

 These figures would indicate that the quantity to be carried toward the close of the 

 season will not be sufficient to cause depressed prices, as was the case particularly 

 four years ago (in some States last year, also), nor, on the other hand, will they be so 

 scant as to cause such high prices as prevailed in the spring of 1912. 



To show the relation between supplies and prices, the following tabulation is 

 given, showing for the past five years the production, stock on hand January 1, and 

 the prices paid to producers on December 1 and the following March 1 in 19 impor- 

 tant potato-growing States: 





Total pro- 

 duction 

 (bushels). 



Stocks on Jan. 1. 



Farm prices. 



Years. 



In growers' hands. 



In dealers' hands. 



Total 

 (bushels). 



Dec. 1. 







Per 



cent 



of crop. 



Bushels. 



Per 



cent 



of crop. 



Bushels. 



Mar. 1. 



1913-14 



238,946,000 

 304,126,000 

 217,532,000 

 261,141,000 

 298,308,000 



42.1 

 39.8 

 33.1 

 40.2 



41.2 



100,495,000 

 119, 678, 000 

 72,072,000 

 104,954,0C0 

 122 997,000 



9.5 

 9.8 

 8.6 

 10.9 

 9.9 



22,797,000 

 30,167,000 

 18,706,000 

 28,463,000 

 29,384,000 



123,292,000 

 149,845,000 

 90,778,000 

 133,417,000 

 142,381,000 



66.2 

 48.6 

 77.6 

 49.5 

 50.0 





1912-13 



47.7 



1911-12 



101.4 



1910-11 



46.9 



1909-10 



47.3 







A PROGRESSIVE POLICY NEEDED. 



The present situation emphasizes the fact that potato production 

 in the United States is not on a sound economic basis. We have an 

 almost regular alternation of seasons when more potatoes are pro- 

 duced than can be consumed and prices fall below production costs 

 in many instances and of seasons of short crops when prices are unrea- 

 sonably high to the consumer. This condition is reflected in the 

 imports and exports, as shown in figure 1. 



