28 BULLETIN 558, U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. 



shrinkage of corn will vary from 8 to 20 per cent, depending upon 

 the moisture content at the time of harvest. With corn the greatest 

 shrinkage occurs in the months of April and May. The loss by ro- 

 dents and insects also must be considered, which in some cases, par- 

 ticularly with corn, frequently is relatively high. While the fire 

 hazard is not great in farm storage houses, it is advisable to protect 

 stored grain by insurance, particularly if the storage bins are con- 

 nected with, or adjacent to, other farm buildings. Other items that 

 must be considered are convenience of marketing, condition of roads 

 at time of delivery, cost of labor, interest on the money value of the 

 grain held in storage, the price at harvest time, and the probable 

 price at some future date. It is necessary also to consider the loss 

 that may be incurred by grain going out of condition while in store. 

 Small grains when damp are likely to become musty or bin-burned. 

 When small grains with high moisture content are put in store it is 

 necessary to " handle " them — that is, the grain must be turned fre- 

 quently to prevent heating and decomposition. In the elevators this 

 is accomplished by transferring the grain from one bin to another or 

 by drying. Corn, when immature and having a high moisture con- 

 tent, can not be stored safely even in the ear unless the crib is pro- 

 vided with ample ventilation and even then the chances of loss may 

 be great. Most terminal elevators and some country houses are 

 equipped with driers, which reduce the moisture content to a point at 

 which the grain may be stored safely. 



ESTIMATING PROBABLE FUTURE PRICES. 



It is impossible, of course, to anticipate, with any degree of ac- 

 curacy, the probable market value of grain at some future date, since 

 market values fluctuate in response to conditions over which no one 

 has control. Moreover, the influences are world-wide in their scope, 

 and the results frequently can not be anticipated. The only guide 

 that may be considered is the average values of the several grains dur- 

 ing each month of the year for a period extending over several years. 

 As a general rule, prices are lower at harvest time and gradually in- 

 crease to the period of lighter receipts at central markets and until 

 the probable yield of the forthcoming crop can be estimated with some 

 degree of accuracy. For a 10-year period the price of corn has shown 

 an average increase of 10 cents per bushel from the lowest point 

 (January) to the highest point (August). 1 During the same period 

 the average price of wheat has advanced about 12 cents per bushel 

 from the lowest price (in August) to the highest point (in May), 

 while oats show an average increase of 5 cents per bushel from the 



1 Burleson, W. L., and Allyn, O. M., Prices and shrinkage of farm grains, University 

 of Illinois, Agricultural Experiment Station Bui. No. 183, 1915. 



