1854.] 



EXPECTATION OF HUMAN LIFE IN CANADA. 



191 



Paris, in 1841. Since then, however, Professor Powell, of Ox- 

 ford, has collected every recorded meteoric appearance in any 

 portion of the globe, and has published the result of his most 

 extensive researches in the Annual Reports of the British Asso- 

 ciation for the Advancement of Science, for the years from 1847 

 to 1852. 



{To be continued.) 



On the Duration and Expectation of Life in Canada compared 

 with other Countries* 



Notice of a Paper read before the Canadian Institute on Saturday, 

 January Wth, 1854, by Geo. H. Dartnell, Esq. 



After giving a brief account of the progress of the doctrine of 

 probabilities, particularly as applied to life contingencies, a history 

 of the various tables now in use among actuaries, and an expla- 

 nation both of their nature and of the manner in which they are 

 used, Mr. Dartnell proceeded to state that, — 



In framing tables of life adapted to Canada, difficulties of no 

 ordinary character have to be surmounted, as, even at the best, a 

 great portion of the data themselves must be deduced from vari- 

 ous sources, and only after the most careful calculation. These 

 difficulties chiefly arise from the fact, that, in this Province, no 

 general records of births and mortalities exist, as in the mother 

 country, where the registration of every birth, death, and marriage 

 is rendered compulsory by law. It may be some years before 

 the utility, and, indeed, the necessity of the introduction of such 

 registration may become apparent in Canada; until then, the 

 data on which we have to work is uncertain and liable to error. 



In the table which is published with this paper, and arranged 

 in columns are included the tables of life expectation from the 

 following sources, viz. : the Northampton, the Carlisle, Breslau 

 or De Moivres, the French or Des Parcieux, the Belgian, the 

 Swedish, and the Canadian. The expectation of life has only 

 been taken for quinquennial periods, that being quite sufficient 

 for the purposes of comparison with other countries. The ex- 

 pectation of Canadian life for the ages prior to sixteen will not 

 be found in the table. However, it may be here remarked that 

 child life in Canada, except among very young infants, is nearly 

 equal to English or foreign life at the same ages, the great 

 deficiency being found to range between the ages of thirty and 

 forty-five or fifty, after which time Canadian life rapidly improves, 

 and at length in some of the older ages, becomes superior to that 

 of other countries. 



A curious fact in connection with Canadian fife may here be 

 noted. Almost all tables in which the sexes are distinguished 

 unite in presenting this result, namely, that female life is better 

 than male ; and many offices proceed upon this assumption and 

 grant annuities on female lives at lower rates than on males. In 

 Canada this rule holds good in the earlier ages of life as far as 

 the age of thirty, when the figures are for males 19.64, and for 

 females 21.32, being a difference of more than a year and a half 

 in favour of female life. Here, however, this superiority ceases 

 to exist, for at thirty-five the numbers are, males 19.50, females 

 18.67 ; at forty the difference is still greater, the average life for 

 females being 17.64, and that for females only 15.59; at forty- 

 five the numbers are, males 15.57, females 13; at fifty the dif- 

 ference is not so great, the figures being for males 13.11, for 

 females 12.50 ; and at fifty-five female life has regained its former 

 supremacy, the numbers being 11.71 for males, to 14.13 for 



females. This superiority is retained for the remaining years of 

 existence. In the Canadian table the expectancy of male and 

 female life is combined, the difference not being great enough to 

 warrant separation ; besides the contrast between it and other 

 countries will be more readily seen than if the table were divided 

 into two, in addition to the fact that the excess at one period 

 balances the deficiency at another. 



A reference to the table will show that, until the higher ages 

 of life are attained, Canadian life is inferior to almost all other 

 countries — that this inferiority diminishes as life advances, and 

 that in old age the chance of survivorship in Canada is something 

 greater than at any of the places named in the tables. At the 

 age of 15, the difference between Canadian life and Silesian and 

 English (as shown by the Northampton table of life) is about 11 

 years — between the Carlisle 19 years, and between other countries 

 something less. As life advances, this great difference diminishes 

 gradually ; for, at 45, life at Northampton is only about 5 years 

 superior to that in Canada. At 50 the line approaches nearer. 

 From 50 to 70 it is equal to some countries, and slightly inferior 

 to others. At 80 it and the Carlisle touch the same point, and 

 from that period till the end of life Canada is superior to the 6 

 others. 



The unfavorable character of Canadian health, as presented 

 by these tables, may be accounted for in various ways. As be- 

 fore remarked, they are purposely taken at as inferior a datum 

 as possible, for the purpose of security. This alone would add 

 throughout a considerable per centage to the table of Canadian 

 expectation of life. Another cause may be assigned — the imper- 

 fect manner in which the census is taken in this country ; for on 

 two sets of calculations, founded on the census of 1842 and 1848, 

 Canadian life was found to be better in the latter period from 2 

 to 10 per cent.; and there can be very little doubt that the last 

 census will exhibit an equal improvement on that of 1848, chiefly 

 arising from the greater accuracy with which these periodical 

 " numberings of the people" are made, and that any calculations 

 deduced from the data of the next census will tend to prove that 

 Canadian life is at least equal, if not superior, to life in similar 

 circumstances in England, and, consequently, to that in other 

 countries. 



The returns of burials in the cemeteries of this city for the 

 four years ending 1850, afforded a datum upon which some time 

 ago the writer formed a table of expectation of life. This agreed, 

 allowing for fluctuations unavoidable in such a small number of 

 deaths, in the main with those which are here presented. These 

 four years embraced the period in which the cholera, the emigrant 

 fever, and dysentry made serious ravages among the population 

 of our city, and therefore would not be a fair test of the general 

 state of health of Canada. Besides, any deductions made from 

 the records of burials will be liable to an error increasing each 

 year, if due allowance be not made for births and immigration — 

 the latter an important item in our statistics. 



The difficulties which attend the formation of a table of expec- 

 tation for Canada on which dependence can be placed, might 

 suggest a hint which perhaps might be useful at the next census- 

 taking. If, in any one year, a complete census were made, regis- 

 tering the age of every individual, and of the deaths which took 

 place in the 365 days next following the day of the census, were 

 noted, the law of mortality could be deduced. In such case, the 

 numbers living at every age would be so large, that the propor- 

 tion of deaths among them in a single year could be safely de- 

 pended on for pointing out, with great nearness, the law which 

 regulates the mortality of large masses. 



