1854.] 



LANDS AND POPULATION IN THE UNITED STATES AND UPPER CANADA. 



289 



It is not intended by this statement to convey tlio idea that 

 the rise in the value of any particular tract of land will be in the 

 exact proportion here mentioned. In many important instances 

 in America it has been greater, in others, perhaps, less. But it 

 is intended to show that the increase in the value of American 

 lands is, iu its nature, like that of compound interest; and that, 

 assuming the very moderate ratio of 3-j per cent, for the increase 

 of. inhabitants, the general rise in the value of property resulting 

 therefrom, is very far above the profit of capital in any of the 

 ordinary ways of employing it. And it is to be remembered 

 that these statements being matters of arithmetical calculation, 

 are not to be disproved, except by disproving some of the 

 premises on which they are founded. 



It ought also to be remarked that the statement is burthened 

 by the inclusion of all the lands in the United States, and, of 

 course, of many millions which are not now for sale, and will not 

 begin to be settled for many years. It is, therefore, much too 

 moderate if considered with respect to the lands now in market. 



The lowest price at which Congress sell the lands they offer 

 for sale is two dollars per acre. The astonishing low prices of 

 lands in America have hitherto been occasioned by the want of 

 capital to invest in them. Only a few European capitalists have 

 lately understood the subject; and nobody is ignorant of the inx- 

 mense advantages they have derived from it. The great increase 

 of capital in America, together with the investments which 

 Europeans are beginning to make in lands, will probably raise 

 their value far above the rate at which it has increased at any 

 former period. 



Such a conclusion results not unnaturally from another con- 

 sideration, which is this: The price of any commodity whatever 

 may be raised in two ways; either by diminishing the quantity 

 for sale, or by increasing the demand. But the extension of set- 

 tlements and the increase of wealth and population operate at 

 once in both these ways upon Ametican lands; not only dimin- 

 ishing the quantity for sale, but increasing the means and the 

 eligibility of making further purchases and settlements. 



The Republic, as is well known, consisted of thirteen States in 

 1790, viz. : Massachusetts, Maryland, New Hampshire, Rhode 

 Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Dela- 

 ware, Virginia, New Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia, 

 The preceding statement has, of course, reference to these thirteen 

 enumerated States only; subsequently the Republic has been 

 extended to twenty-four States by the addition to the Union of 

 the following eleven States, viz. : Maine, Vermont, Ohio, Tennessee, 

 Mississippi, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, Alabama, Louisiana, and 

 Kentucky. To these might be added the territories of Michigan, 

 Arkansas, FloriJa, and the District of Columbia. 



In considering the accompanying statement and calculations 

 founded thereon, although they may not at first view appear to 

 have realised in 1834 the anticipations of the author, who p.enned 

 them forty years since, many events and the consequences 

 arising out of them have occurred, vyhich have most materially 

 affected the contemplated result; it may tend to illustrate the 

 actual position of the case by bringing forward those events 

 which bear in favour, and also those which bear against the 

 statement In favour of the statement". — ■ 



For some time, especially during the wars with England in 

 1812 to 1814, there was scarcely any immigration into the United 

 States. On the contrary, there were considerable emigrations 

 from thence to Canada, &c, nor would a state of war tend to 

 promote any natural increase of the population. 



The vast extension of the dominions of the Republic by the 

 acquisition of Florida, the annexation of other States and terri- 

 tories since 1790, would necessarily postpone the settlement of 

 all the lands in the manner anticipated, and also generally keep 

 down their prices most materially. (1) But yet the average 

 prices of settled land is supposed to far exceed thirteen dollars, 

 or three guineas per acre. (2) 



Against the statement: — 



The population of the United States did not amount to 

 18,000,000 of inhabitants in 1834, being only 12,866,020 at 

 the last census in 1830. (3) 



The number of immigrants into the United States has been 

 very considerable during the last 20 years — especially during 

 the last 10 years. 



To draw these observations to a point, the object had in view 

 in .extracting and condensing the annexed statement (although 

 sufficiently interesting in itself, if proved to be tolerably correct — 

 due allowances being made for the unforeseen circumstances) 

 was to endeavour to draw a parallel statement of the prospective 

 position of Upper Canada, in a given number of years, founded 

 upon accessible data. 



The population of Upper Canada, in 1838, was 400,000 

 inhabitants. (4) 



Within the actual limits of Upper Canada, between the paral- 

 lels 41°, 47°, and 49° of north latitude, there are 141,000 square 

 statute miles. (5) 



Assuming that only that portion of the territory embraced 

 by, and on the south of French River, Lake Nepissing, and the 

 Ottawa River, is available or suitable for agricultural purposes, 

 and that the territory beyond those limits will only be settled 

 when the population of the south shall become very dense, and 

 making allowance for the superficies covered by water, it will 

 not be underrating the quantity of land at present considered 

 available, in estimating it at about one-third less than the whole 

 territory, but say, for the purpose of this statement, at 100,000 

 square statute miles. (6) 



Thus it appears there are now 160 acres to each inhabitant. 



A recent intelligent Canadian writer (7) considers the terri- 

 tory suitable for settlement at 35,326,400 acres, after deducting 

 16,000,000 for water. 



Thus it appeare there are 88j acres to each inhabitant. 



The annexed table will show that to settle the 100,000 square 

 statute miles, or the 64,000,000 statute acres, in the proportion 

 of 20 persons to a square mile, or 32 acres to each individual, 

 will require 2,000,000 inhabitants. (8) 



It will take 47 years, unassisted by immigration, compound- 

 ing the natural increase with the principal, at three-and-a-half 

 per cent, per annum, to settle 100,000 statute miles. 



40 years assisted annually by 5,000 immigrants. 

 35 ditto ditto 10,000 ditto. 



32 ditto ditto 15,000 ditto. 



29 ditto ditto 20,000 ditto. 



26 ditto ditto 25,000 ditto. 



The table will also show the number of years it will take to 

 settle in a like manner the 35,326,400 acres, and which will re- 

 quire 1,103,950 inhabitants. 



