88 



BRITISH ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCE. 



[1854. 



all, for the les.son they have taught on the importance of testing every 

 theory by a patient collection and impartial discussion of the facts ; in 

 a word, "for having imported the spirit of science into what, in the 

 largest sense of the word, may be called politics, instead of importing 

 the spirit of politics, in its narrower sense, into science. 



What is more importont than to rescue questions of this nature, 

 such as Finance and Political economy, for instance, in some degree 

 at least, from the domain of party contention? And how can we 

 better contribute to that desirable result, than by discussing the care- 

 fully collected facts in a scientific spirit on an arena within which no 

 party spirit is excited, no party allegiance is acknowledged, no party 

 victory has to be lost or won, and when men are at liberty to convince 

 or be convinced without risking a charge of treachery or a change of 

 ministry as the consequence ? But, in fact, these studies could not 

 fairly have been excluded from our peripatetic university of science. 



Who shall separate Political altogether from the influences of Phy- 

 sical Geography, or Ethnology from Physiology, or the destinies of 

 man upon this globe from the study of his physical nature ? By its 

 employment of the doctrine of probabilities, one branch of statistics is 

 brought into immediate contact with the higher mathematics, and the 

 actuary is thus enabled to extract certainty in the gross out of uncer- 

 tainty in the detail, and to provide man with the means of securing 

 himself against some of the worst contingencies to which his life and 

 property are exposed. In fact, statistics themselves are the introduc- 

 tion of the principle of induction into the investigation of the affairs of 

 human life ; — an operation which requires the exercise of at least the 

 same philosophical qualities as other sciences. It is not enough in 

 any case merely to collect facts and reduce them into a tabular form. 

 They must be analyzed as well as compared ; the accompanying cir- 

 cumstances must be studied (which is more difficult in moral than in 

 material investigations), that we may be sure that we are (that is to 

 say, in reality calling the same things by the same names) treating of 

 the same facts under the same circumstances ; and all disturbing 

 influences must be carefully eliminated before any such pure experi- 

 ment can be got at as can fairly be consi 'ered to have established a 

 satisfactory conclusion. In some cases this is easier than in others. In 

 regard to the probabilities of life or health, for instance, there are, at 

 least, no passions or prejudices, no private interests at work, to inter- 

 fere with the faithful accumulation of the facts, and if they be nu- 

 merous enough, it might be supposed that their number would be a 

 suflicient protection against the effect of any partial disturbances. 

 But even here, caution, and special, as well as extensive knowledge, 

 are required. There are disturbing influences even here, — habits of 

 life, nature of employment, immigration or emmigration, ignorance or 

 mis-statement of age, local epidemics, &c., which leave sources of 

 error in even the most extended investigations. Still results are 

 attained, errors are more and more carefully watched against, and 

 allowed for, or excluded, and more and more of certainty is gradually 

 introduced. And here I should not omitto notice the valuable services 

 of the Society of Actuaries, not long ago established, and who are re- 

 presented in our statistical section. They discuss all questions to which 

 the science of probability can be applied ; and that circle is constantly 

 extendino-— assurance in all its branches, annuities, reversionary inter- 

 ests, the laws of population, mortality, and sickness ; they publish 

 transactions ; and what is of the greatest importance in this, as indeed 

 in any branch of inductive science, they hold an extensive correspond- 

 ence with foreign countries. In fact, they are doing for the contin- 

 gencies of human life, and for materials apparently as uncertain, some- 

 thinn- like what meteorology is doing for the winds and waves. 



What shall I say to the statistics of crime, of education, of pauper- 

 Ism, of charity, at once and reciprocally the eff'ect and the cause of that 

 increasing attention to the condition of the people, which so favorably 

 distinguishes the present age? Who can look at the mere surface of 

 society, transparently betraying the abysses which yawn beneath, and 

 not desire to know something of their secrets, to throw in the moral 

 dra"' and to bring to the light of day some of the phenomena, the 

 monstrous forms of misery and vice which it holds within its dark re- 

 cesses ? and who can look at these things, no longer matter of conjec- 

 ture, but ascertained, classed, and tabled, without having the desire 

 awakened or strengthened to do something towards remedying the 

 evils thus revealed, and without feeling himself guided and assisted 

 towards a remedy ? Yet here, more than in other cases, should a man 

 suspect himself; here should he guard himself against hasty conclu- 

 sions, drawn from the first appearance of the results ; for here are dis- 

 turbing influences most busily at work, not only from without, but 

 from within — not only in the nature of the facts themselves, but in the 



feelings, passions, prejudices, habits, and moral constitution of the ob- 

 server. 



Still, the tabling of the facts is of infinite importance. If they dis- 

 turb, as they are sure to do, some feeling, some prejudice, some theory, 

 conviction, it will be felt, that anyhow the facts have to be accounted 

 for ; further investigation will follow ; and if it appear that no correc- 

 tion is required, the truth will be established, and the hostile theory 

 will, sooner or later, give way and disappear. In these things it is, of 

 course, more than usually important that the facts to be selected for 

 collection should be such as are, in their own nature, and under the 

 circumstances, likely to be ascertained correctly, and that the business 

 of collection should be in the hands of those who have no bias to do it 

 otherwise that fairly, no interest in the result : and this was, I be- 

 lieve, kept studiously in view by those who had the management of our 

 great statistical work, the recent Census of our own country, which 

 we are still studying ; but, wli ether they were successful or not, in 

 this respect, has already become matter of discussion. 



The work itself is, doubtless, one of the greatest monuments that 

 has ever been presented to a nationi as a record of its own constituent 

 elements and condition ; compiled and commented on with singular 

 inda3try,jadgment, acuteness 3nd impartiality, — the Domesday-book 

 oi the people of England, as the ^reat volume of the Conqueror was of 

 its surface. 



Nor can I, while speaking of statistics, avoid referring to the Sta- 

 tistical Congress which took place at Brussels, about this time last 

 year ; which had mainly for its object to produce uniformity among 

 different nations in the selection of the facts which they should record, 

 and in the manner of recording them ; without which, indeed, no sa- 

 tisfactory comparisons can be established, no results can safely be 

 deduced. To bring about such an uniformity absolutely is, I am 

 afraid, hopeless ; inasmuch as the grounds of difference are, in many 

 cases, so deeply imbedded in the laws, the institutions, and the habits 

 of the difl'erent countries, that no hammer of the statist is likely to re- 

 move them. 



To understand, however, the points of difference, even if they are 

 not removed, is, in itself, one great step towards the object. It at 

 least prevents false conclusions, if it does not fully provide the means 

 of establishing the true ones. It gets rid of sources of error, even if 

 it fail of giving the full means of ascertaining truth. Take, for instance, 

 the case of criminal statistics. We wish to ascertain the comparative 

 prevalence of diiferent crimes, either at different times or in different 

 countries. For this purpose must we not know under what heads the 

 jurists and statists of the times or countries to be compared array the 

 various offences which are recorded ; with what amounts of penalty 

 they were visited ; and with what rigour, from time to time, the penal- 

 ties were enforced ? 



That which is called manslaughter in one country, and assassination 

 in another, is called murder in a third. That which in one country is 

 punished with death, in another is visited by imprisonment. The 

 bankruptcy which in one country is a crime, in another is a civil offence. 

 The juvenile offences which in one country are punished by imprison- 

 ment, and swell the criminal calendar, in another are treated, as they 

 should in many cases be, only as a subject of compassion and coi-rec- 

 tion, — take no place in the criminal calendar at all. 



Indeed, it is one of the difficulties which beset a large proportion of 

 these investigations, whether into morals, health, education, or legis- 

 lation, and which must always distinguish them from those which deal 

 either with matter or defined abstractions, that, in using the same 

 terms, we are often uncertain whether we mean the same thing; 

 whether, in fact, when we are using the same denominations the same 

 weights and measures are really employed. Such conferences, however, 

 as those of Brussels tend much to limit the extent of error. 



Among the objects which may best occupy the attention of the 

 Statistical Section, at the present moment, will be the discussion of a 

 decimal coinage, and the statistics of agricultural produce. It is im- 

 portant in regard to both, that by previous sifting and discussion not 

 only the best conclusions should be arrived at, but the subject should 

 be so familiarized to general apprehension as to secure the widest co- 

 operation. In regard to a change in the coinage, the interests and 

 feelings of the lower classes must be especially consulted ; and, with 

 this view, without expressing any ultimate opinion, I would recom- 

 mend to those who are considering the question, the perusal of a 

 pamphlet, full of important matter, by the late Mr. Laurie, the work 

 of the last hours of a man of eminent knowledge and virtue, which he 



