Manchester Memoirs, Vol. xli. (1897), No. 11. 5 



comparison in every case, if for no other reason than 

 because changes in tariffs, and complicated and com- 

 prehensive systems of import duties, will not be liable 

 to disturb the basis of comparison on one side of the 

 account at least. If the valuations are less accurate 

 at one time than at another, it will not be by reason 

 of efforts to escape newly-imposed exactions. For the 

 other side of the comparison it is desirable to select 

 a country not likely to be greatly affected by transit- 

 trade, that is, one with which our trade as recorded 

 approximates closely to the trade as it exists in reality. 

 The movement in each direction should be, as far as 

 possible, a direct movement, not a movement via a third 

 country. We have, -also, to exercise care in regard to 

 the inclusion or exclusion of bullion and specie, some 

 countries including, others excluding, treasure in their 

 trade accounts. 



We proceed, then, with the examination of the 

 records. By way of preliminary, the comprehensive 

 survey of the trade of the world given by Dr. von 

 Juraschek may be noticed. It is as follows (amounts 

 in millions of marks) : — 



Average 

 of the years 



Imports 

 of the world. 



Exports 

 of the world. 



Excess Imports 

 per cent. 



1880-84 



35.07I2 



30,5872 



147 



1885-89 



33.6327 



29,213! 



15-1 



1890-94 



37.6789 



32,4851 



160 



There are so many sources of error in such com- 

 prehensive estimates as that here quoted that it is not 

 advisable to rely upon their indications too implicitly ; 

 on the other hand, the very fact of the errors being 

 numerous and independent may give a total not affected 

 by large errors. Taking the figures quantum valeant, 

 they do suggest that the low freights of the present day 



