8 Flux, Fall in Prices during the past Twenty Years. 



The lowest point reached was 8% below the 1886 level. 

 The exports, on the other hand, stood, in 1876, at prices 

 30% above those of 1886, as estimated by this criterion, 

 and fell nearly 18% below that level by 1894, somewhat 

 recovering in 1895 and 1896. (See Plate 15.) 



Now, can there be any useful conclusions drawn from 

 the comparison of Sir Rawson Rawson's method with 

 that of Mr. Stephen Bourne and the Economist ? If 

 the conclusions are to be sound, the answer appears to 

 be "No," and for reasons explained in what follows. 

 Suppose one year to be characterised by a larger import 

 of bulky and cheap goods than the preceding, but no 

 change of prices to have occurred. We may, if desired, 

 add the hypothesis that the quantities of other imports 

 have decreased, and also without change in price. The 

 totals might work out at the same aggregate value as 

 those of the preceding year, and, since prices have not 

 changed by our hypothesis, the price-level and the volume 

 of trade would have remained stationary according to 

 such measurements as those of Mr. Bourne. The more 

 bulky goods requiring a larger tonnage to transport them, 

 the tonnage entries would be greater, and the average 

 value per ton consequently less. By Sir Rawson 

 Rawson's method, therefore, average prices would be 

 shown to have fallen and the volume of trade to have 

 increased. If this were the sole source of difficulty, we 

 should be able to deduce from the facts a valid con- 

 clusion, to wit, that the imports are to a less degree, 

 the exports to a greater degree than formerly of a bulky 

 and cheap nature, and that the change has been much 

 more rapid since 1887 than before that date; the period 

 1880-84 showing, however, no inconsiderable effect of 

 this nature. The same conclusions would be arrived at 

 by such a method of argument as the following : The 

 average value of imports per ton of shipping in 1886 



