Manchester Memoirs, Vol. xli. (1897), No. 12. 11 



so much as to show a less fall of price than that resulting 

 from the Economist figures. As the effect on the average 

 price of exports of the greatest changes of price of coal 

 exported which the past twenty years show was but a 

 trifle over 1 %, and as the figure of 1896 is but 5 % above 

 that of 1886, the exclusion of coal from the estimate of 

 average export prices would produce but slight variations 

 in the result — variations perfectly insignificant when 

 compared with the changes in Sir Rawson Rawson's 

 calculations which this one item makes. These con- 

 siderations, though not at all destroying the utility of 

 the tonnage calculations, may lead us to prefer, as a 

 reliable estimate of the actual movement, the Economist 

 figures. 



As a useful application of the latter figures, the corre- 

 sponding variations in quantities of imports and exports 

 are of considerable interest. The results are best seen in 

 a diagram. The leading points may profitably be indi- 

 cated here, however. The imports retained were, twenty 

 years ago, 18% in quantity below those of 1886, last year 

 they were 60 % above that level. Domestic exports were, 

 twenty years ago, 32 % less in quantity than in 1886, last 

 year they were nearly 19 % greater than in 1886. The 

 re-exports made about equal progress with the domestic 

 exports from 1876 to 1891, since which date the move- 

 ment shown is quite irregular. The volume rose to 18% 

 above the 1886 level in 1895, but less than n % above in 

 1896. Over the whole period the volume of re-exports 

 may be said to have increased some 60 %, but the value, 

 on which profits in handling them depends to a large 

 extent, has only increased 10 %. (I compare the average 

 of 1895 and 1896 with that of 1876 and 1877.) I shall 

 make no attempt to estimate the total gain of the twenty 

 years arising from buying imports at lower prices and to 

 set it off against the loss arising from selling exports 



