23 



area devoted to the cultivation of cotton of 900,000 acres, the normal 

 production from which would be in the neighborhood of 350,000 bales, 

 became invaded for the first time. This brings up the total infested 

 area in the United States at present to about 32 per cent of the total 

 cotton acreage. A very conservative estimate of the damage caused 

 by the pest, based upon the principles mentioned in the foregoing 

 paragraph, is $22,000,000 for the season of lOOtt, as against about 

 $15,000,000 during the preceding season. Man}^ estimates much larger 

 than this one have been made. Careful examination, however, reveals 

 the fact that many fallacies are connected with such excessive esti- 

 mates. There is a general tendency to overestimate the damage by 

 insect pests, and to attribute all of the damage in any quarter to insect 

 depredations when climatic conditions have been unfavorable. 



In this connection it is of interest to note the present very large 

 crop (estimated by the Bureau of Statistics of this Department on 

 December 3, 1901, as 12,162,000 bales'^), and to refer to the question 

 that has been raised as to the reasons for this very large production 

 in view of the large territory infested by the pest. The following 

 appear to be the principal reasons for the present large production: 



(1) The insect has not 3^et reached numbers in all its range sufficient 

 to appreciably reduce the crop. The accompanying map (fig. 1, p. 25) 

 outlines the total area in which any weevils are known to occur. In 

 perhaps 10 per cent of the territory thus considered infested only 

 isolated colonies occur, and the general production has not yet been 

 curtailed. In some of the northern counties of Texas, for instance, 

 the production could not have been reduced by the weevil, although 

 the statistics show considerable variation between the several j^ears on 

 account of changes in acreage and the ravages of other insects, prin- 

 cipally the boUworm. The following table shows variations in pro- 

 duction in some of the counties of north Texas in which the boll weevil 

 is not yet numerous enough to appreciably reduce the crop. 



Table I. — Cotton production in certain counties in nm-thern Texas, in equivalents of 500- 

 pound bales. 



County. 



1899. 



1900. 



1901. 



1902. 



1903. 



Average. 



Montague ■ 



15,064 

 16, 826 

 28, 584 

 49, 077 

 11, 905 



34,488 

 21, 347 

 47, 870 

 70, 963 

 18, 751 



28, 454 

 16, 756 

 35, 911 

 60,049 

 19, 561 



16, 981 

 17, 829 

 31,284 

 47, 344 

 11, 012 



30, 172 

 20, 307 

 33,815 

 62, 979 

 20,813 



25, 031 

 18,613 

 35,452 

 58, 082 



Bowie 



Red River 



Col] in 



Cook 



16, 408 





(2) Throughout the portion of Texas where the bulk of the crop is 

 produced — that is, north of about the latitude of Waco — various condi- 

 tions combined to cause an unusually small number of weevils to 

 hibernate successfully during the winter of 1903-4. The principal 

 factor in this situation was the very early date of the first killing frost, 



a Census Bui. 19, April 25, 1905, gives crop of 1904 as 13,584,457 bales of 500 pounds. 



