1904.] C. Little — The Himalayan summer storm of Sept. 24th, 1903. 149 



In the Fioneer of September 28tli, the following remark appeared : 

 *' The sky is becoraiDg clear all over Upper India, and fine weather 

 is now promised by the Meteorological Department." 



Ten days later the Pioneer wrote as follows : " On the 26th or 27th 

 September the Meteorological Bureau seems to have arrived at the con- 

 clusion that fine weather conditions were becoming established over 

 Upper India just on the eve of one of the most heavy and prolonged 

 bursts of rainfall that can ever have been recorded so late in the year. 

 Even now the daily telegrams seem to show no appreciation of the 

 extraordinary character of the season in which October seems to have 

 changed places with July. Down to the end of the former month there 

 was every reason to apprehend in these Provinces that the autumn 

 crops would be a failure from the want of rain. The danger now is 

 that they may be ruined by too much of it. Already serious damage 

 must have been done in places, and the telegrams to-day give a lively 

 picture of the state of things in the Deccan and especially at the capi- 

 tal. Railway communication has been severed between Madras and 

 Secunderabad. There are even fears that the great Hussain Saugor 

 Tank may burst its bounds, and already thousands of people belonging 

 to the villages along its banks are said to have been rendered ]iomeless." 



My object in quoting the above remarks from the daily press I will 

 give presently. But before going on to the subject of the paper I may 

 perhaps be permitted to point out, that it is not apparent, whether the 

 criticism of the writer in the Pioneer is directed against the system on 

 which weather forecasting is done in this part of the world, or whether 

 it is against the subordinates, I might almost say the rank and file of 

 the Weather Bureau who, in no way responsible for the system, still 

 have a responsibility as regards the application of that system to daily 

 occurrences. I have not been able to verify the accuracy of the state- 

 ment in the Pioneer that the Weather Bureau had come to the conclu- 

 sion that fine weather conditions were becoming established, but there 

 is not much doubt that such was the case, because on the present system 

 of weather forecasting there was no other alternative. The chief feature 

 of the present system, at times other than when weather is controlled by 

 a well-marked cyclonic storm, is in the estimate of the strength of what 

 is called the Arabian Sea monsoon current and the Bay of Bengal 

 monsoon current. If these currents are both weak, then diminished 

 rainfall is considered inevitable in Northern India; and when this weak- 

 ening of the monsoon current on both sides of the peninsula is accom- 

 panied by the commencement of the change of season in Upper India, 

 about the usual time, the chances of more rainfall in that region are 

 greatly diminished. Now, in September of the past year, there was 



