1904.] 0. Little— TAe Himalayan summer storm of Sept, 24thj 1903, 165 



was given in June 1891, of the drought in Rajputana dur- 

 ing the monsoon rains of that year." 

 The paper closes with the following paragraph : — 



" It is hardly necessary to point out that the methods em- 

 ployed and sketched above are practically identical with 

 those employed in giving warning of the approach of storms, 

 aud I may again point out that these long period forecasts 

 in India are rendered possible by the peculiar features of 

 the South- West Monsoon air motion over India, and by the 

 remarkable persistency of many of the abnormal conditions 

 of the meteorology of that current." 

 The meaning of the statement regarding the full warning in June 

 1891 of the drought in Rajputana is shown by the following extract 

 from a paper by Mr. Eliot on oscillatory changes of pressure published 

 in 1895. Met. Mem. Vol. VI, page 92 :— 



" The abnormal pressure conditions which enabled the Department 

 to foretell accurately the last serious drought in India, viz., that 

 of 1891, in Rajputana, were small in amount, depending on pres- 

 sure variations and anomalies not exceeding '05"^ ." 



The above extracts make it, in my opinion, sufficiently evident that 

 the theory or hypothesis on which weather forecasting in India for 

 long or short periods was conducted from 1888 to 1895^ was the pres- 

 sure anomalies or variations as disclosed by the barometric observa- 

 tions in the plains of India. A study of monsoon forecasts and other 

 publications will, I believe, complete the proof (notwithstanding the 

 statement in the Chicago paper) that Mr. Blanford's theory had ceased 

 to be a living theory, but any such troublesome investigation is rendered 

 quite unnecessary because the last annual summary to which Sir J. Eliot 

 contributed, that of 1902, contains at his hands the complete quietus of 

 that hypothesis. In page 708 of that summary the following occurs : — 

 " In the year 1902, the deficiency in the total rainfall due to the 

 Arabian Sea was due solely to the weakness of the whole circu^ 

 lation of the South-East trades and South-West monsoon during 

 more than half of its normal period. In some years of similar 

 periods, as in 1885, the delay and weakness of the monsoon was 

 associated with heavy prolonged and continuous snowfall during 

 the cold and hot weather periods in the Western Himalayas. 

 This was not the case in 1902, as the snowfall of the cold wea- 

 ther or winter of 1902 was one of the lightest on record. It is 

 hence probable that actions and conditions in the Indian Ocean 

 are primary, and conditions in India such as snowfall in the 

 Himalayas subsidiary, and are of small importance relatively to 



