156 (y. Little — The Himalayan summer storm of Sept, 24thy 1903. fN'o. 4j, 



the former except when the conditions in the Indian Ocean and 



Seas are approximately normal." 

 It is unnecessary to follow the progress of weather forecasting 

 through the years between 1895, and 1903, when the above opinion was 

 written, or to consider the influence of American meteorologists in 

 directing the development of Sir J. Eliot's opinions ; or to show that 

 the abnormal years, such as 1899, convinced even him that Mr. Blanford 

 was right in the opinion that pressure anomalies form an unreliable 

 guide in forecasting the weather in Northern India. All that is neces- 

 sary is to show that in 1903, so far as hypothesis or theory went, the 

 slate had practically been wiped clean, the snowfall theory had failed, 

 the pressure anomalies had failed, the comparison with previous years 

 had failed ; and all that remained was to transfer the seat of cause and 

 effect to the Indian Ocean or Seas, an area over which an active imagi- 

 nation may roam with but little restraint. 



The following extracts from the report referred to, the Annual 

 Summary for 1902, appear to support the opinion which I have given, 

 that Sir J. Eliot believes the character of the monsoon to be deter* 

 mined in the Southern Seas :— 

 Page 688. 



" The conditions in India itself hence fail to give any clae to the 

 delay in the advent of the monsoon currents in June and July, 

 and more especially of the Bombay or Arabian Sea current.'* 

 Page 705. 



" The discussion of the Meteorology of India in the preceding 

 pages has shown clearly: — 



(1) That the conditions in India in the latter part of May and the 

 commencement of June were such as are usually associated 



^ ' with an early and strong monsoon, more especially as judged 



by the data of the period 1875-1892, antecedent to the period 

 of anomalous and remarkable conditions obtaining from' 1892 

 to 1902. 



(2) That there was no large or rapid change of meteorological 

 Conditions in India prior to the remarkable change in the 

 character of the Arabian Sea Monsoon in the third week of 

 Aagust. The conditions then prevailing were such as invari- 

 ably accompany a prolonged break in the rains, and ^re rather 

 effects and not causes of the breaks. It hence follov^^s that 

 the causes, actions or conditions determining tlie weakness of 

 the Arabian Sea current in the first half of the period, and its 

 strength during the second half, are not to be sought for in 



■'-^ . ' India or the Indian monsoon land area, but most probably in 



