6 THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS AND THEIR ENVJUOXMEM 



million square miles, greater than all the United States, with a })Oj)U- 

 lation commonl}'^ estimated at 350,000,000, or five times that of the 

 United States, and which has onl}'- 350 miles of railways. This one 

 I^oint, to me, is a complete description in itself (^f her possibilities. 

 It is difficult to imagine the extent of the material development that 

 must follow the early construction of extensive trunk and branch 

 lines of railway. There is crying need now for 25,000 miles of rail- 

 roads, which means a safe investment, including what goes with such 

 construction, of $500,000,000. 



To impress upon you further China's possibilities, let us look at 

 what may be the limits of her trade when once she has a good gov- 

 ernment established and her interior is opened up. We will obtain 

 our conclusions by comparison with Japan. Japan, which under 

 ordinar}' conditions would not have a greater buying and selling 

 capacit}' than China, has built up in twenty years a foreign trade 

 from $30,000,000 to $240,000,000. The present population of Japan 

 is forty millions, giving a trade of $6 per capita. Now, let us apply 

 that rate of $6 to a most conservative estimate of China's population, 

 two hundred and fifty million, and we have a possible annual trade 

 of $1,500,000,000. If you divide this in half for the imports, you 

 have $750,000,000. If you look over the list of Chinese im})orts, you 

 will find that two-thirds of them can be supplied by the United States 

 if she will enter into earnest competition with other countries. Al- 

 ready we have shown what we can do by developing in northern 

 China within a few years an annual trade of $10,000,000 in manu- 

 factured cotton goods, and in southern China of $6,000,000 in tiour. 

 In ])()th lines our sales were inconsidera])le ten years ago. 



If any one snys that Cliina has not a great buying and selling 

 capacity when she is opened u]), he must remember the experience 

 of the Yangtze Valley. Some forty 3'ears ago one or two ships and 

 $500,000 represented the trade of that mighty stream. Today you 

 can go up the Yangtze 600 niiles, from Shanghai to Hankow, in finer 

 steamers than those l)lying between New York and Albany, and the 

 annual trade of the river is estimated at nearly $75,000,000. From 

 this you can conceive what must come when the vast interior sec- 

 tions of China are covered with railwa3'S, and the same development 

 follows that has characterized the Yangtze River. It is not discour- 

 aging that Chinese trade is now only $250,000,000 a year, or $1 per 

 head. It rather shows Avhat great opportunities remain yet to be 



