204 A a E UMAX ROUTE TO LXDLi 



enable him to concentrate his troops where they could most advan- 

 tageously resist a Russian advance — it will enhance his })Ower in 

 another direction. Today the Sultan is a negative factor in the con- 

 test for influence on the Persian Gulf; l)Ut with a road through Asia 

 Minor he will become a consideral>le, if not prominent, force in any 

 partition or settlement of the possession of the Gulf The road would 

 enable him in a few days to mobilize his army of a quarter of a mill- 

 ion men either at Constantinople or Busra. 



To England also the German route ought to be an advantage. To 

 be sure, it makes Germany her competitor in the Indian markets ; 

 but this comjjetition is more than balanced b}'' the new demands that 

 will constantly be arising. The markets should be large enough for 

 both English and German merchants. Politically, however, it will 

 l)e more important for Great Britain to maintain her friendship with 

 German}', and possibly render it advisable for her to endeavor to 

 regain the alliance of Turkey. 



That Russia is intensely interested in a German railway to the 

 Persian Gulf has been rei)eatedly emphasized by the actions of the 

 Russian Government since the concession was granted in 1899. 

 First, she demanded of Turkey prior railway concessions on all lines 

 through Asia Minor to the north of the German concession. Recent 

 reliable re))orts from Constantinople state that the Sultan has been 

 compelled to yield to the demand. This concession includes a line 

 from Batum to Constantinople, skirting the shoi-es of the Black Sea. 

 Second, she has renewed her plans for the continuation of the Trans- 

 Caucasian Railway from Kars in a line almost directly southward to 

 some point on the Gulf near Busra. There is a j>ro})al)ilit3' that this 

 railway may be completed before the German road. Third, she is 

 ])ushing across Persia several lines that are also to end at the Persian 

 (iulf. The general direction of these roads is indicated on tlie map 

 (page 202), and the}' also will probably be completed before the Ger- 

 man road becomes a fact. 



The recent rapid increase of Russian influence in Persia, a striking 

 instance of which is the loan to the Shah, has been in large measure 

 occasioned by the present inability of England to interfere. But the 

 }»rospect of a railwa}' controlled by another power and terminating 

 on the Persian Gulf has quickened Russia's amlntion to reach the 

 Indian Ocean. 



Gilbert H. Grosvenor. 



