THE WATER SUPPLY FOR THE NICARAGUA CANAL 365 



leaving 492 inches as a ma.rgin of safet3^ Tiiis is a coefficient of safet}^ 

 of about 9i, which ought to he regarded as exceedingly liberal. 



As an actual fact, no one knows what was the discharge, eitlier 

 maximum, minimum, or mean, from Lake Nicaragua prior to 1898. 

 We do know, however, that the San Juan River has been navigated 

 for a period much longer than the Rivas rainfall record, and that 

 alwaj^s, within the last generation or more, it has been necessary to 

 transfer freight over the rapids during the dry season and unneces- 

 sary to do this during the season of high water. These facts are 

 based not onl}^ upon the testimony of such intelligent men as Hon. 

 \V. L. Merry, former superintendent of the transit compan}^ and now 

 United States Minister to Nicaragua and Costa Rica, but u})on the 

 existence of the light-draft steamers and lighters used for these pur- 

 poses at that time, which fully bear out the testimony that the reg- 

 imen of the Sun Juan River, and therefore of Lake Nicaragua, has 

 not materially changed within the memory of men now living. 



If the conclusions drawn by Professor Heilprin are correct, Lake 

 Nicaragua has been onl}^ a short time at its })resent stage, but in this 

 alleged short time it has made a very marked and decided beach 

 throughout the extent of its western coast. How, then, did it manage 

 to leave absolutel^y no record of its stage twenty or thirty 3'ears ago? 



But the crowning ahsurdUy, involved by Professor Heilprhi's theory is 

 thai the old Spani-sh fortifications at Grenada, the tvharf, warehouses, and 

 (I part of the city, as ivell as several villages and liamlets around tJie lake, 

 viud have been all constructed under W(der, since they are noiv less than 20 

 feet (d)ove the lake level. 



It is a curious fact that, in order to clinch his argument and show 

 tiiat there is no probability of a recurrence of very wet years to make 

 good the alleged loss from the lake. Professor Heilprin trium[)hantly 

 quotes from Dr Hayes as follows: "So far as known, there is no evi- 

 dence whatever that the rainfall has ever ])een greater in this region 

 than it is at the present time." This quotation is emplo3'ed at the 

 close of an article which purports to show conclusively that the water 

 supj)ly to Lake Nicaragua luts very greatly declined within a gener- 

 ation, and that tiierefore there is conclusive evidence that the rainfall 

 has l)een greater in this region than it is at the present time. 



