1904.] Paper.^. 41 



occasion weather remained exceptionally fine for the season in that area. 

 But Mr. Blanford discovered more than twenty years ago that to forecast 

 rainfall in northern India something more than the report from 

 ground-level observatories is wanted. " What is more especially wanted 

 now is a knowledge of the prevailing movements of the higher atmos- 

 pheric strata." Nothing more is known now of these upper atmospheric 

 strata than when Mr. Blanford wrote, but in this paper it is maintained 

 that the change which began at the end of September last was in the 

 upper strata, and that the circumstances of the subsequent rainfall 

 could not have been foreseen without a knowledge of these strata — an 

 opinion which the quotations from Sir J. Eliot's writings show was, in 

 all probability, not shared by him. The paper closes with short tables 

 of meteorological statistics showing the progress of the disturbance 

 over Bengal up to the commencement of the first depression. The 

 tables are arranged, as in previous papers, to show that the same features 

 were present as on the occasions therein referred to. 



7. Cyclone of Idth to 15th November, 1903, in the Bay of Bengal, — 

 By 0. Little, M.A. 



(Abstract.) 



The paper on the cyclone of 13th to 16th November in the Bay 

 of Bengal is intended to show the importance of what is called ' re- 

 curving ' in the more dangerous cyclones. Charts are given showing 

 the tracks of two steamers, the ' Madura ' from Calcutta to Rangoon and 

 the ' Pentakota ' from Rangoon to Calcutta, and the very curved path 

 of the cyclone. The two steamers were on the outer edge of the storm 

 at 8 A.M. on the morning of the 14th, and before midnight were involved 

 in the central area of hurricane winds — the ' Madura ' about 5 in the 

 afternoon, the * Pentakota ' some hours later. The main object of the 

 paper is to show that the rules laid down by Sir J. Eliot in the Hand- 

 book of Cyclonic Storms are of little assistance in enabling mariners to 

 avoid the central area of a cyclone, that is of a severe cyclone, re- 

 curving as up-to-date experience shows all severe cyclones to do. Both 

 these ships during the 14th moved in a course more likely than any other 

 to bring them near the central area, and this is the more striking 

 in the case of the * Madura' whose officers were engaged in a continued 

 effort to apply the rules of the Handbook. The course of the ' Madura ' 

 on the chart and the narrative quoted in tlie paper show that those on 

 board were unable to allow for recurving until about 6 p.m., when the 

 barometer began to rise and the centre had passed to the east of vessel. 

 Tlie opinion of the writer is given that this recurving cannot be anticipat- 

 ed and allowed for by consideration of ground-level and sea-level obser- 



