FUTURE OF THE FIELD 653 



Whether or not drilling is extended to the Clinton, there is sure to be 

 a. gradual increase in depth of the wells in all the old fields, the tendency 

 of which will be to sustain production and prevent the rapid decline char- 

 acteristic of many other fields. 



EFFECT OF IMPROVED METHODS OF RECOVERY 



In late years a method of reestablishing in part the original conditions 

 of pressure, etcetera, by pumping air back into the sand has been locally 

 put in practice with promising results. If, through an extension of this 

 method, the salt-water troubles can be overcome, or even materially re- 

 duced throughout any considerable portion of the field, the production 

 should be noticeably increased and the life of the field prolonged. 



EFFECT OF CHEAPER AND MORE EFFECTIVE REFINING METHODS 



The lowering of refining costs or the extraction of greater percentages 

 of gasoline will naturally delay the introduction of substitutes and will, 

 therefore, like improved methods of recovery, tend to lengthen the life of 

 the field. On the other hand, there would also be a tendency to lower 

 prices, with a consequent retardation of development, as compared with 

 what might otherwise take place. What the ultimate result upon the field 

 would be is somewhat difficult to determine. 



INFLUENCE OF POSSIBLE SUBSTITUTES 



It is always within the range of possibility that, as petroleum becomes 

 scarcer and the price of its products advances, some cheaper substitute, 

 capable of being used in motor vehicles and gas engines, will be discovered. 

 When the price of gasoline permanently reaches 30 to -35 cents a gallon it 

 will be approaching the price at which alcohol may possibly be produced 

 and marketed by large corporations. If such a substitute is introduced 

 it will limit the demand and price obtainable for petroleum and will tend 

 to restrict the production of the latter. 



A more probable substitute for natural petroleum is likely to be the oil 

 extracted from petroliferous shales. From the distillation of a ton of oil 

 shale in Scotland is obtained 30 to 35 gallons of crude oil and 30 to 40 

 pounds of ammonium sulphate. Refining the oil results in the obtaining 

 of 2 gallons of gasoline, 10 gallons of kerosene, and T gallons of lubri- 

 cating or other heavy oils. The rest is paraffin and loss, the latter usually 

 amounting to from 25 to 30 per cent. 



At what price distilled oils will l)eoin to take tlie place of natural oils 

 will depend largely on price of labor, cost of machinery, and efficacy of 

 methods. It is belie\ed by some that the substitution is likely to occur 

 when oil permanently reaches a price of $4 a barrel, though it may come 



