654 M. L. FULLER APPAL ACHL\N OIL FIELD 



either before or after this price is reached, according to the effect of ex- 

 traneous factors. Temporary rises in price will have little or no effect. 



TREND OF PRODUCTION CURVE 



The Appalachian oil field practically reached its maximum production 

 of 36,000,000 barrels per annum in 1891, continued with a production 

 between 30,000,000 and 35,000,000 barrels until 1900, when it touched 

 its second maximum of a little over 36,000,000 barrels. From this figure 

 it has fallen off gradually to 24,000,000 barrels in 1914, a decline of 12,- 

 000,000 barrels in 14 years, during the last eight of which the output has 

 remained nearly stationary. How long the present rate can be main- 

 tained is problematical, but the time is not likely to be long. The pro- 

 duction has been better sustained in the Appalachian than in any other 

 field, however, and the drop is likely to be comparatively slow. The de- 

 cline after the output becomes less than 10,000,000 barrels per annum 

 will normally be even slower. There is little doubt that the field will 

 still be materially productive at the end of 50 years from today if outside 

 factors do not intervene, although it is about 70 per cent exhausted. 



FiN'AL Conclusions 



While the structure may be said to be favorable to oil throughout the 

 Appalachian field, from three-fourths to four-fifths of the producing hori- 

 zons of the north end of the field are without representation south of West 

 Virginia. Eeservoirs in this area are few in number and poor in quality. 

 The percentage of fixed carbon in coals is such that, if the postulated rela- 

 tion between it and the distribution of oil holds good, oil would not be 

 likely to occur in any considerable amount in Kentucky, Tennessee, or 

 Alabama, even if the stratigraphy and reservoir conditions were favorable. 



Geology, if properly applied to developments, will materially assist in 

 sustaining the production and prolonging the life of the field; The great- 

 est promise of new supplies lies in deeper drilling. Better methods of 

 recovery will help the field materially. 



The normal life of the Appalachian field, if substitutes for petroleum 

 are not introduced in the meantime, should be not less than 50 years 

 more, but with slowly decreasing output. Production will never cease 

 entirely ; for, even if substitutes are found for illuminating and power 

 juirposes, there will still be a good demand for petroleum for lubricating, 

 highway, and possibly fuel purposes. There is a probability, however, if 

 other prolific fields are not discovered elsewhere, that the extraction of 

 shale oil on a large scale will begin before the Appalachian field ap- 

 proaches exhaustion. If so, the active life of the field will be shortened. 



