250 Transactions of the South African Philosophical Society. 



India — there was an average deficiency of 33 per cent, below the 

 normal. (Dr. G. T. Walker, Meteorological Eeport to Government 

 of India.) 



On the whole, the indications from India are similar to those from 

 Abyssinia and the Nile basin ; that is to say, the rains were weak 

 and late in beginning, but showed an improvement at the finish. So 

 that as regards South Africa, the Indian Monsoon does not afford an 

 indication more definite than that of the Nile and Abyssinia. It is 

 worthy of note that the failure of the Indian Monsoon was on the 

 western side ; that is to say, that which is nearest to South Africa. 



Forecast : Summer 'Rainfall Area, South Africa generally, except the 

 Southern and South-west Coast of Cape Colony. 



The year 1906 coming between two rainfall periods, there may be 

 short and local droughts, or the rains may run on to the heavy 

 rainfall period which is ahead of us in 1907, and probably 1908. 

 The outlook now is several years of good rainfall ahead. 



Forecast : South Coast and South-west. 



Strong south-easters (really southerly and south-westerly winds) 

 may be expected during the summer. 



The cyclical indication for next winter's rains is that they will be 

 moderate. 



A word of warning may be added in conclusion. Long-period 

 forecasts cannot in the nature of things have anything like the pre- 

 cision attached to the short day-or-two forecasts, which are framed 

 simply on a study of the approaching weather movements. It is 

 perhaps unfortunate that the word "forecast" has been applied at 

 all to long-period weather predictions. In any case, it is advisable 

 to remember that the latter are at best but a calculation of prob- 

 abilities, and an indication of what may be expected to affect the 

 coming season as a whole. 



Thus, farmers may expect general good seasons for the next two 

 or three years, but this is not to say that there will not be drought 

 in certain places ; and, as I have mentioned, for the drier inland 

 districts the rains are too irregular for the cyclical forecast to have 

 any practical value. After 1908 there are six years of drought to 

 look forward to, with an irregular mitigation of the drought, most 

 probably about 1911 or 1912. 



