THE COUNT OF PUPS. 101 
THE VALUE OF THE ESTIMATE. 
The weakness of the foregoing estimate lies in the tigures for the nonbreeding 
animals. It is worked out merely because such an estimate is asked for in our 
instructions. The figures, however, satisfy the conditions and we believe approximate 
the truth as closely as it can be reached at the present time. For the estimate of 
breeding animals, which is really the important thing, we have no apology to offer. 
It is practically exact. 
To eliminate the last element of uncertainty in arriving at a full enumeration of 
the herd it is only necessary to continue the census of the breeding herd each year 
for a certain period. Knowing the number of pups born in 1896, in 1899 it will be 
possible from the quota of that year to tell with reasonable exactness the number 
which survive to killable age. With each succeeding year the data will become more 
-exact, and in the future the Government can know exactly what quota to expect and 
what the condition of the hauling as well as of the breeding grounds is. Given the 
birth rate of any year and the quota of three years later can be determined. In ~ 
like manner from the quota of any year the birth rate of three years previous can be 
determined. 
THE TRUE BASIS OF ENUMERATION. 
The only reliable basis of enumeration has been found and demonstrated. This 
is a count of live pups. The pups as a class are fixed in their places on the rookery 
for the first six weeks of theirlives. Their mothers may come and go, but they remain. 
It is not necessary that all the pups on all the rookeries be counted. It would be 
impossible to make a count on the larger rookeries. But if some typical rookery, as 
Kitovi, be counted each year to obtain the average size of harem, and then the harems 
be counted on all the rookeries about the 15th of July, the average harem of Kitovi 
being applied to them, a census exact enough for every purpose can be obtained. 
From this census and the quota itself the completed estimate for the nonbreeding 
animals can be made up. 
