CHAPTER XVTIII. 
THE FUTURE OF THE FUR-SEAL HERD. 
A RECONSIDERATION OF THE QUESTION. 
With the season of 1898 will close the five-year trial period of the regulations 
of the Paris Tribunal of Arbitration. These regulations were, as we have seen, 
formulated for the “protection and preservation of the fur seals.” In the treaty 
of 1892, under which the arbitration was convened, “the preservation of the fur 
seal in, or habitually resorting to,” Bering Sea was expressly designated as part of 
the object of the convention. Furthermore, in the declarations which the tribunal 
made to the respective governments concerned we find that “in view of the critical 
condition to which it now appears certain that the race of fur seals is reduced” it 
was recommended that all killing of seals, whether on land or at sea, be prohibited 
for an agreed period of years. From these references, it must be clear that the 
avowed purpose and intention of the Tribunal of Arbitration was to accomplish 
the protection of the fur-seal herd. It is equally clear that the responsibility for. 
carrying this purpose was placed upon the nations concerned in the arbitration and 
which accepted its decision. 
A BASIS FOR THE REOPENING OF THE SUBJECT. 
In approaching a reconsideration of the regulations the two nations have now 
a much clearer knowledge of the conditions surrounding the problem. As a result 
of the recent conference of American, British, and Canadian fur-seal experts at 
Washington, an agreement as to facts was reached sufficiently broad and conclusive 
to show the true condition of the herd, the cause of its decline, and the remedy. 
This joint agreement will be found in full in Appendix II of this report. We may 
here briefly summarize its conclusions: 
FINDINGS OF FACT. 
THE DECLINE. 
First, it is found that the fur-seal herd has declined largely from its condition in 
1884 down to the date of the inspection of the rookeries in 1897. This means that 
the herd has continued to decline under the regulations. The decrease is stated as 
equal to from two-thirds to four-fifths of its maximum size. Between the seasons of 
1896 and 1897 the rate of decline is found from the most.reliable data to be between 
9 and 12 per cert. For this same period the pelagic catch has itself declined fully 
one-half. 
SLOW RAVE OF INCREASE IN THE HERD. 
Second, it is found that the natural death rate among the seals, especially the 
young, is high, so that but one-half to one-third of those born attain the age of three 
years. This means that the rate of increase in the fur-seal herd under the best of 
conditions is slow. 
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