84 COOPERATIVE MARKETING 



a surplus accumulates at the end of the season and the 

 market is demoralized by too heavy shipments. 



With the estimates of their own crop and as accurate 

 statistics as can be had of the total citrus crop both in Cali- 

 fornia and Florida before them, the directors and the man- 

 ager undertake to predict the course of the market. They 

 study reports of their own and others' movements of fruit 

 for past years, seeing what quantities were shipped at vari- 

 ous times and what prices were obtained for such ship- 

 ments. Let us assume that for a period of years prices 

 had tended to rise toward the end of the navel season, say, 

 in May and June. Our manager and directors know that 

 they are in a district where the fruit ordinarily hangs on 

 well and retains its quality. "Now," they say, "we shipped 

 12 per cent, of our crop during those months last year; let 

 'us retard our shipments to i6 per cent, for those months 

 this year and take advantage of those higher prices." They 

 wduld be very unwise if they decided to hold over on 30 

 per cent., for other associations might be planning the same 

 move, or a general underestimate of the crop might cause 

 the prices in those months to be lower instead of higher 

 than the average. After taking everything into considera- 

 tion the board may conclude that it is advisable for the 

 association to pick and ship 10 per cent, of the estimated 

 crop during January. Therefore they order a January pool, 

 and the manager notifies the members that they are to be 

 prepared to furnish 10 per cent, of their estimated crop to 

 that pool. That is, if a member has estimated his crop at 

 5,000 boxes he is told that the packing house will expect 

 500 boxes from him during January. 



At the next meeting the board will discuss whether the 

 crop gives indications of having qualities which tend toward 

 good holding on the trees or whether it would be advisable 

 to move it as rapidly as possible. Also the market may 



