THE COFFEE TEADB. 203 



laid down here at 8 to 12 cents per pound, what must it be now 

 at 12 to 16 cents per pound ? 



In view of these conflicting opinions, it is well to keep in mind 

 some peculiarities of coffee-culture and of the staple itself, which 

 may sometimes mislead calculation or temporarily suspend logical 

 results. It takes, as we have seen, from three to four years for 

 new coffee plantations to come into bearing ; hence the necessity 

 for a considerable outlay of capital to open a plantation ; hence, 

 also, ample working room for speculative operations to move in, 

 before the field can possibly respond to the market. And specu- 

 lation finds still farther assistance in the nature of the article, 

 which, not deteriorating, but improving with age, constitutes an 

 excellent secm-ity on which to borrow money.* There is, therefore, 

 no doubt that a " ring," backed by suificient capital, could for a long 

 time keep up an artificial situation ; and, in the present instance, 

 it cannot be denied that the embarrassing economical problems 

 resulting from the want of hands in the coffee-producing countries 

 of the western world, the unprogressive condition of Java's in- 

 dustry for many years, leaf -disease in Ceylon, and the increasing 

 aggregate consumption indicate a plausible foundation for at least 

 a temporary advance. But, on the other hand, it must not be 

 forgotten that the area for coffee culture in the world is practically 

 unlimited, and that new centres of immense production have 

 already sprung up in regions overflowing with cheap labor, wliile 

 in spite of the supposed disadvantages of the Brazilian planter the 

 average yearly export from Kio de Janeiro for the seven years 

 from 1874 to 1880 reached 229,149 tons, an unprecedented figure. 



I now pause to consider the consumptive requirements of the 

 world, my figures, as far as possible, being based on actual returns 

 in the United States, England, France, and Germany, while for 

 other countries I have availed myself of the latest accessible 

 statistical tables, using quite freely as a basis those collated by 

 Dr. Yan Den Berg (Historical and Statistical Notes, Java, 1880). 



* It is tme that the lessons of 1880, and the downfall of the leading spirits in 

 the great coffee syndicate are likely to render such operations loss liable to in- 

 fluence the market in future. If, however, serious disaster should reduce the 

 Brazil crop in as great a proportion as the 1880-81 Java crop has been cut down, 

 the fact alone would generate new speculative ventures. 



