THE CAUSES OF THE DECLINING BIRTH RATE 149 
while in others it has fluctuated back and forth. In general, the 
marriage rates calculated according to the two methods show a 
fairly pronounced tendency to vary together. 
The birth rate would very naturally be affected by the average 
age of marriage, since with later marriages there is a greater 
reduction of the child-bearing period. Galton estimates that the 
expected fertility of women marrying at 29 is to that of women 
marrying at 20 as 5 to 8. It isa common belief that the average 
age of marriage is increasing. For some countries this is true, 
but as the accompanying table shows, this is by no means a 
general fact. The average age has declined slightly for both 
sexes in France, Prussia, Bavaria, Oldenburg and Denmark for 
nearly a half century. For the last quarter of the 19th century it 
has declined also in Finland, Wurtenburg and Saxony. 
Average Ages of Marriage. 
Eng. & Wales| Prussia France Sweden Bavaria 
rol 2 rofl g os 2 fof g co 2 
1856-60... 30.50] 26.10] 30.80] 28.41 
1861-65... 30.11| 25.80 
1866-70... 29.89] 27.22] 30.19] 25.62] 30.86] 28.26 
1871-75... 29.81] 26.99] 30.50] 25.79] 31.16] 28.46] 32.3] 28.7 
1876-80... 29.56] 27.08} 30.16] 25.37] 30.78] 28. 31.6] 28. 
1881-85... 29.51] 26.27] 29.82] 25.96] 30.19] 27.49] 30.6) 27.6 
1886-90...| 28.23] 25.96] 29.65] 26.52] 29.75] 25.11] 30-24] 27.57] 29.1] 26.1 
1891-95...| 28.43] 26.16] 29.65] 26.52] 29.80] 25.40] 30.68) 27.64 
1896-00.. .| 28.38] 26.21] 29.30] 26.20] 29.65] 25.20) 30.23] 27.33 
IQOI-04.. . 28.90} 25.70 
In England and Wales the mean age of spinsters has slowly 
advanced, according to Newsholme, since 1873, (earlier data are 
rather untrustworthy), the increase from 1896 to 1899 being 
from 25.08 years to 25.73. There has been a general increase also 
in Queensland and New South Wales. 
The statistics of the average age of marriage (as well as those of 
the marriage rate) are affected by the frequency of divorce. 
Where divorces are common there is apt to be a large number of 
