36 



TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP. 



A representative of the National Lumber Manufacturers' As- 

 sociation " has recently predicted a decline in the cut of south- 

 ern pine of 7 billion feet by 1930, and a further decline in other 

 regions in the East of 2 billion feet, making a total of 9 billion. 

 As further reducing the eastern output available for general 

 markets he estimates an increase in export demand by 1930 of 

 1 billion feet of southern pine and an increase in local require- 

 ments in the South from 7J billion feet to 9 billion. He esti- 

 mates the total increased production necessary by 1930 from 

 other regions in the United States or from foreign sources at 

 llj biUlon feet. 



From a prewar normal production of southern pine of 15 bil- 

 lion feet it is believed that a reduction to 9 billion by 1930 is 

 very conservative, and the falling off of an additional billion is 

 well within possibilites. The reported output of the southern 

 pine region in 1918 was only 11 billion feet. The prewar normal 

 of all other softwood and hardwood production in the East was 

 somewhat less than 15 biUion, and here a reduction of 3i billion 

 feet in the cut by 1930 would be conservative, with possibly 

 more than half of this coming from hardwood production. 

 While no exact prediction can be made, it is certain that the 

 total decline in output will be very large. 



For hardwoods we can turn only to the tropics for materially 

 increased supplies. For softwood lumber we still have large 

 reserves in the West. Of the more heavily timbered Western 

 States the least can be expected from Montana. Increased cuts 

 are predicted frojn Idaho, California, and Washington by men 

 in the industry most familiar with the situation. The main 

 increases, however, will have to come from Oregon. So far as 

 domestic production is concerned, the entire United States will 

 therefore be chiefly dependent for lumber in excess of local pro- 

 duction upon three or four States in the far West. 



The part of the lumber traffic from the West which is not 

 handled by ocean shipments via the Panama Canal must move 

 east over the main lines of the transcontinental railroad sys- 

 tems. Even under conditions of the past 10 years there has 

 been a constant complaint from lumber manufacturers of in- 

 ability to secure cars. The situation has been at its worst dur- 

 ing the past year. Shipments for a very considerable part of 

 the western traffic during 1919 averaged slightly more than 

 26,000 feet to the car. At this rate every additional billion feet 

 of lumber shipped east would mean 40,000 additional carloads. 

 Five billion feet would make 200,000 carloads. In addition to 

 the difficulty in building and maintaining additional equipment 

 are the physical difficulties involved in moving such vast 

 amounts of freight. 



Assuming an average freight rate of $15 per thousand on 

 shipments of lumber from the West and increased demands 

 upon that region of 10 billion feet in 1930, the annual freight 

 bill for moving this timber to the eastern and middle western 

 markets would be $150,000,000. This is about one-half more 

 than the present average transportation cost for the same 

 quantity of lumber, and will form a part of the annual price 

 of depletion. Prior to 1840 the entire lumber cut of the country 

 was used within a comparatively few miles of the sawmill at 

 which it was manufactured. Transportation costs from mill 

 to market, then varying from $1 to $3 per thousand feet, have 

 risen to a maximum of $20 at the present time. 



Even more important than the mounting costs is the menace 

 involved in having the principal markets of the country so 

 entirely dependent upon distant regions for the supply of such 

 an important raw material as lumber. Some of the railroad 

 difficulties have already been discussed. Labor troubles are 



" Life of the Softwood Lumber Industry, by F. V. Dunham, field rep- 

 resentative of the National Lumber Manufacturers' Association, South- 

 ern Lumberman, May 8, 1920. 



another possible contingency. How seriously bad weather con- 

 ditions of a season or two at the logging camps can afCeet many 

 industries and classes of consumers is now illustrated in the 

 hardwood lumber region of the lower Mississippi Valley. Any 

 one of many factors may disorganize the lumber markets and 

 supplies of nine-tenths of the country, and a combination of 

 these factors would be serious in proportion. 



If we elect to depend upon imports instead of home-grown 

 timber, there is, first, the question of whether timber from 

 foreign countries will be actually available. It would have to 

 come from greater distances, and obstacles in the way of 

 securing it would be correspondingly greater. Transportation 

 and other distribution costs would be increased, and higher costs 

 are ordinarily represented in still higher prices to the consumer. 

 Finally, we should have to compete for any supplies available 

 with other countries which do not themselves produce all the 

 timber they need. 



FUTURE TRENDS IN REQUIREMENTS. 



Future trends in requirements will be considered in detail 

 only for lumber. Our requirements for pulp wood will expand 

 rapidly, but the volume required, as compared with lumber, is 



small. 



The per capita lumber consumption in the United States in 

 1850, the year of the first fairly complete lumber census, was 

 only 230 board feet, with a lumber production of 5.4 billion 

 board feet and a population of 23,192,000. It then increased 

 steadily until it reached its crest of 515 board feet in 1906, 

 with a total lumber cut of approximately 45 billion feet. From 

 1906 to 1913 the per capita consumption declined to 430 board 

 feet. The war curtailed production to 32 billion feet in 1918, 

 or 300 board feet per capita, of which part was for war pur- 



12S.0 



i-^Cutand Destruction 

 ^Growth 



Softwoods 



Hsrdwoods 



l/tf.O 



1/g.o 



J _CuA and Destruction 

 Growth 



HD- 



^Cufand Destruction 

 ^Growttt 



Billions of cubic feet 

 Fig. 10. — Eelation between forest depletion and forest growth. 



poses. This restricted use resulted in the abnormal demands 

 and unprecedented prices of the past year. 



The experience of industrial European countries gives some 

 indication of what American future requirements for lumber 

 will be. In England, for example, during the 60 years from 

 1851 to 1911 the consumption of lumber increased from 40 

 board feet to 120 board feet per capita, although 95 per cent 

 of her requirements must be met through imports at high cost. 

 Similarly, German home production at least doubled during 

 the 60 years between 1840 and 1900. Industrial- development 

 made ir necessary to import constantly increasing amounts of 

 timber, and in spite of the cost of imported material, the per 

 capita consumption at the outbreak of the war was about 150 

 board feet per annum. 



The United States is still a new country. We still have large 

 areas of undeveloped agricultural land. In much of our terri- 

 tory first construction was of such a character that replacement 

 on a larger and better scale will be desirable if not absolutely 

 necessary. Our population is growing rapidly and there is no 

 reason to believe that it will not continue to grow. Industrial 

 development in many sections has hardly begun. How large the 



