TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP, 



21 



average at most two or two and a half logs per tree, and the 

 logs run fifteen to the thousand. The amount of upper grades 

 that is sawed from second growth is much smaller than from 

 virgin timber. For instance, a mill tally on a certain operation 

 showed that virgin timber sawed out on the average about 55 

 per cent of the high grades," while second growth barely yielded 

 19 peir cent. An inferior forest is therefore succeeding the virgin 

 timber and the highest grades are not being replaced at all. 



Change to inferior species. — Deterioration is taking place not 

 only in grades but also in species. The most valuable timber 

 trees of the southern pines are longleaf and slash pines, both for 

 their timber qualities and as a source of naval stores. The 

 longleaf pine, particularly throughout the Gulf States, as a rule 

 does not come in on cut-over land, because of sparse seed pro- 

 duction and the grazing of hogs. Unless cut-over longleaf-pine 

 land is protected by hog-proof fences or by stock laws the areas 

 of longleaf pine will be -greatly diminished. The original -pro- 

 portion of longleaf in the southern pine forests has already 

 been reduced for the remaining merchantable timber from two- 

 thirds to a little less than half. North Carolina, which once 

 had large areas of longleaf pine and was famous as the " Long- 

 leaf Pine State," can boast now of hardly 50,000 acres of 

 second-growth longleaf pine widely scattered in small areas. 

 A large part of the remaining virgin longleaf area will, after 

 logging, either become nonproductive or be restocked to a con- 

 siderable extent with shortleaf pine. 



THE LESSON OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES. 



I^arge areas of second growth now found in the older South 

 Atlantic States and a fairly permanent cut of timber by small 

 mills are often taken to indicate what the future of the Gulf 

 States is to be after the larger sawmills have completed their 

 logging operations. There are vital differences, however, in 

 the handling of the timber in the two regions. The virgin for- 

 ests in the South Atlantic States were cut over very lightly — 

 often for local consumption only — and the logging was done by 

 animals. This left many young trees which soon formed a new 

 merchantable stand and provided ample seed for young growth. 

 The present-day steam logging in the Gulf States amounts to 

 clear cutting over large areas, and even inferior trees are fre- 

 quently brought to the mill. 



The virgin forests of the South Atlantic States contained 

 less longleaf pine than the Gulf States. In Virginia, for in- 

 stance, there was practically none. In the Gulf States fong- 

 leaf forms the bulk of the stand, and it is the longleaf repro- 

 duction which is most afEected by the free ranging of hogs. 

 Furthermore, the turpentine operators are now tapping more 

 and more young trees, and by excessive turpentining prevent 

 many from reaching maturity. 



It is certain, therefore, that under present practice the Gulf 

 States will not have as much seconB growth after the virgin 

 forests are cut out as the older South Atlantic States now have. 



LIFE OF THE YELLOW PINE INDUSTRY. 



A recent surv'ey covering 5,400 mills, owning or controlling 

 practically the entire remaining virgin stand in the South, indi- 

 cates that 4,419 mills, or nearly 82 per cent of all those re- 

 ported, will cut out in 5 years or less, and the output of virgin 

 timber will be reduced by nearly 50 per cent; that 5,254 milW, 

 or over 97 per cent, will cut out their timber in 10 years or less, 

 with a corresponding reduction in the output of 78 per cent; 

 that in 20 years all the mills, except 12, will have cut out their 

 timber, and their production will have been reduced to only 3 

 per cent of the present output. This does not mean, however, 

 that the total lumber production will be reduced at this rate. 

 As the larger sawmills cut out small mills will take their place 

 and will work in the second growth and on the small scattered 

 tracts which under present conditions can not be economically 

 loesred in large-scale operations. 



Although in five years over 19 per cent of the present virgin 

 timber will be cut out, only about 11 per cent of the entire 

 merchantable stand will be used up. In 10 years 52 per cent 

 of the entire virgin timber will be gone, but only 30 per cent 

 of the entire present merchantable timber. In 20 years nearly 

 90 per cent of all the virgin timber will be exhausted and over 

 50 per cent of the entire merchantable timber. As the virgin 

 timber dwindles, the second growth will contribute more and 

 more to the production of yellow-pine lumber. In 10 or 12 

 years second growth will probably contribute two-thirds of the 

 entire cut. 



Although the exhaustion of the virgin timber does not mean 

 entire exhaustion of the yellow-pine industry in the South, the 

 life of the Industry as now constituted is largely the life of the 

 present large sawmills. When the larger mills cut out at the 

 present locations, they will cease to figure in the industry ; for 

 it is now almost impossible for an operation of any magnitude 

 to secure a location which commands enough timber to justify 

 logging operations. The South will undoubtedly continue, as 

 New England, to be a lumber-producing region. It will cease, 

 however, to be a national factor ; and from a general utility 

 wood, the high-grade yellow pine, as the white pine, will be- 

 come a specialty wood, while the second growth will furnish 

 inferior grades for industrial purposes and for local use. In 

 about 10 years the yellow-pine region promises to take second 

 place as a national lumber-producing center. 



REDUCTION OF THE OUTPUT. 



Lumber production of yellow pine in 1930, allowing for new 

 sawmills to take the place of the larger sawmills which will 

 be cut out, it is estimated will be about 9i billion feet, a re- 

 duction of nearly 6 billion feet, or 38 per cent, from the esti- 

 mated production of 1919. This means a yearly decrease in the 

 output of about 550 million feet, or a little over 3J per cent. 

 If, however, to the sawed lumber is added the yearly cut of saw- 

 log material for hewn ties, poles, and posts, and the loss of 

 merchantable timber from windfall, turpentining, fires, insects, 

 and diseases, the reduction is likely to be at the average rate 

 of 700 million feet, instead of 550 million feet. This does not 

 mean that every year the output will be actually diminished 

 by 700 million feet. If the present high prices for yellow-pine 

 lumber continue, production may be stimulated and the output 

 may hold up during the next few years instead of declining. 

 Should, however, such an increased production take place, the 

 decline in the output will be so much the more rapid toward 

 the end of the life of the industry. 



PRESENT AND FUTURE CONSUMPTION OF LUMBER IN THE 

 SOUTH. 



The Southern States consume locally about one-third of their 

 total pine cut, or 5 billion feet. By some good authorities home 

 consumption is placed even at 50 per cent. 



The South has passed the threshold of a great agricultural 

 and Industrial development. At the same time the South is 

 underbuilt. The average value of its buildings per farm is less 

 than in any other section of the country. With agricultural 

 and industrial development the standards of rural and urban 

 life will become higher; and better and larger houses will be 

 built. This will require more lumber. 



The annual consumption of lumber is expected therefore to 

 increase until in 10 to 12 years it may amount to 9 billion feet. 

 By that time the output of yellow pine will probably shrink to 

 9 billion feet. Thus by 1930 the South may cease to be an ex- 

 porting region, and may produce barely enough lumber for its 

 own needs. This does not mean that no southern yellow-pine 

 lumber will be shipped out of the Southern States, but it does 

 mean that the exports and imports of lumber will balance. After 

 1931 the South will become more and more an importing region. 

 In 15 years the South will become dependent for its own needs 

 upon large importations of lumber from the Pacific coast. 



