14 



TIMBEB DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP. 



the country look to an increasing cut ; but even here there are 

 already local evidences of depletion, warnings that the con- 

 clusion of the story will be the same as that of other regions 

 and in far less time than has been estimated. 



Hardwood depletion and the migration of centers of pro- 

 duction has followed along much the same line, although 

 regional boundaries have been much less distinct. Cutting 

 began early in New England and along the Atlantic coast, 

 spread slowly to the westward through New York and Penn- 

 sylvania as local supplies were cut out, and became important 

 in Ohio and the Middle Atlantic States after water and rail 

 transportation was developed. From here it spread north into 

 the Lake States and south into Kentucky and Tennessee and 

 the southern Appalachian Mountains. The stands of these 

 various regions have been successively depleted. In New Eng- 

 land and New York, aside from second growth, largely in farm 

 wood lots, there remain only the stands of hardwoods in the 

 North. The commercial cut of the Middle Western States is 

 almost a thing of the past. Tliat of the Lake States has fallen 

 off materially, as has also even that of the southern Appa- 

 lachians. The end of the cut in the Appalachian States is 

 pretty definitely in sight. The only reserve of importance is 

 the southern Mississippi Valley, and even here it is doubtful 

 if future production will for any length of time materially 

 exceed the average output of the last few years. 



BASIS FOR DATA. 



Before taking up the various timber regions ' the basis for 

 the data used should be given. It should be recognized that 

 thoroughly reliable data on such subjects as the remaining 

 stand of timber, its quality, rate of growth, and extent of 

 depletion, and on the forest areas of different classes, can 

 be obtained only by a thoroughgoing timber survey requiring 

 two or more years. Nothing of this character has ever been 

 attempted in the United States. 



More has been done in estimating the amount of saw timber 

 than on any other of the subjects mentioned. The most com- 

 prehensive data on timber stand were secured by the Bureau 

 of Corporations. A part of the country only was covered for 

 timber of saw-timber size, and such questions as the volume of 

 material below saw-timber size, extent of depletion, rate of 

 growth, the requirements of our industries, etc., were not in- 

 cluded. Other available data have covered this and other 



1 Figure 1 shows diagrammatieally the more or less arbitrary State 

 groups which are used in part for statistical purposes only. It shows 

 also the principal saw timber sections of the United States. The 

 regions of the discussion do not follow either consistently, but the 

 areas included in each are indicated in the text. The State groups used 

 are made up as follows : 



New England : Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, 

 Rhode Island, and Connecticut. 



Middle Atlantic : New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, 

 and Maryland. 



Lake : Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. 



Central : Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, 

 Iowa, Missouri, eastern Kansas, and eastern Nebraska. 



South Atlantic and East Gulf : Virginia, North Carolina, South Caro- 

 lina, Georgia, Florida, and Alabama. 



Lower Mississippi : Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, eastern Texas, 

 and eastern Oklahoma. 



Kocky Mountains : Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, western 

 South Dakota (Black Hills), New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, and Nevada. 



Pacific coast : California, Oregon, and Washington. 



That part of the Kaniksu National Forest in Washington is in- 

 cluded in the Rocky Mountain region, while those parts of the El- 

 dorado, Inyo, Mono, and Tahoe National Forests in Nevada are in- 

 cluded in the Pacific coast region. 



The comparatively small area of rather open woodland, chiefly on 

 farms lying in the Great Plains between the ninety-seventh meridian 

 and the Rocky Mountains, is not considered in the report. Some 

 100,000,000 to 150,000,000 acres of low-grade woodland and scrub, such 

 as open Juniper and pinon of the West, scrvibby mountain stands, and 

 chaparral, are also omitted. 



phases of timber supply only for parts of States or regions. 

 Some of the timber remaining in the United States has never 

 been cruised under any method. That cruised has been esti- 

 mated by different methods and by difEerent men, and also at 

 different times when widely varying standards of utilization_ 

 were in effect. For the State of Washington, for example, a 

 large percentage of the estimates date back to 1890 and 1895, 

 when " red fir " and hemlock were considered inferior species 

 and given little attention. 



Possibly the estimates secured for the southern pine region 

 are as satisfactory as any. Here it was possible to obtain the 

 results of a recent survey which brought together the best 

 estimates available from a large percentage of timber owners. 

 For some regions it was possible to do little more than revise 

 the Bureau of Corporations' estimates by subtracting the cut and 

 depletion as offset by estimated growth. The Bureau of Cor- 

 porations' estimates form, in part, the basis for the data used 

 in the southern Mississippi Valley hardwood region and the 

 Pacific Coast States. In all cases, however, such data were 

 supplemented by additional estimates, wherever obtainable, 

 from such sources as later and more reliable cruises of indi- 

 vidual holdings and county tax estimates. 



For hardwood stands in particular the available estimates 

 are not satisfactory. The Bureau of Corporations' study covered 

 only the hardwoods of the southern Mississippi Valley, which 

 were at that time regarded as having comparatively little value, 

 and satisfactory estimates could not be secured. Many of the 

 industries which are now dependent for their raw materials 

 upon the hardwoods are in great need of accurate information as 

 to the extent of existing stands and what they can count on for 

 the future. The data available show, however, that the future 

 is very uncertain. 



For New York results are based on a questionnaire to private 

 owners in 1918 which covered the territory only in part. Simi- 

 lar data were available for parts of New England. Only a 

 part of the estimates for National Forest timber is based on 

 thoroughgoing cruises. 



The report embodies the first attempt to cover for the entire 

 country the total volume of material below saw-timber size in 

 cubic feet. It can only be an approximation. 



The data on forest areas have been compiled from a great 

 variety of sources secured for different purposes by different 

 organizations with varying degrees of accuracy. For several 

 of the classifications, such as productive and unproductive areas, 

 the data are fragmentary. 



The estimates of growth are based on a limited number of 

 studies of growth made at various times during the past 20 

 years. While representing somewhat more detailed data than 

 were ever before available, they are still very inadequate and 

 no claim is made that the figures given are more than an 

 approximation. 



In response to the request of the Senate, the Forest Service 

 has endeavored to describe the situation in fairly specific 

 terms, using the best information available. It recognizes that 

 much of the data used lacks scientific accuracy and is tenta- 

 tive rather than final in character. An attempt has been made 

 to utilize every available source of information and to check 

 the figures by the judgment of well-informed men in the differ- 

 ent regions. 



While an exhaustive and detailed survey of the forest re- 

 sources of the United States is necessary to establish these 

 figures with finality, there can be no question as to the broad 

 facts of depletion which they indicate. 



NEW ENGLAND. 



THE GROWTH AND DECLINE OF THE LUMBER INDUSTRY. 



New England has passed through every stage of forest ex- 

 ploitation from the days when only the best white pines and 

 oaks were merchantable to present depenaence upon outside 



