INTRODUCTION. XXXI 



"But, happily," said the veteran statesman, " tliese cases are rare in history. 

 They are the exception, rather than the rule. " 



In all or most of these wise opinions I cannot but agree, and I 

 would fain hope and believe that Arbitration is becoming the rule, 

 and War the exception, in international affairs. 



Again, it may be said that a Minister who wishes for war will 

 not be hindered by Arbitration. That is precisely what will hinder 

 him, for it is taking a very low estimate of a responsible Minister of 

 a great nation to suppose the reverse. 



I recall a remarkable declaration by one, if not the very greatest 

 statesman, France has produced, M. Thiers, who in 187 1, when 

 speaking of the miserable causes which culminated in the disastrous 

 Franco-German War, declared, that, if France had had twenty-four 

 hours, to consider calmly and dispassionately the question, the War 

 would have been averted. 



That language is somewhat similar to the declaration of one of 

 our own statesmen, the late Lord Granville, namely — 



" That the advantage of an arbitral reference is this : that it gives nations and 

 governments an opportunity to gain time." 



Time is a powerful factor for peace, at a crisis between nations 

 alternating between peace and war, and if, in such a crisis, as M. 

 Thiers referred to, there is an interval allowed for reflection, when 

 nations and governments have an opportunity to calm their 

 disturbed passions, and judiciously examine the question in dispute, 

 before blindly rushing into war, I believe it will be found, in nine 

 cases out of ten, that peace will be preserved. 



Undoubtedly, the great want in every State is some influential or 

 executive authority, not only to compel Governments to carry out 

 the obligations of Treaties, and to act justly towards foreign States, 

 but to have recourse on all questions of difficulty or dispute, to 

 some system of amicable reference. 



This executive authority, really to be effective, must be supported 

 by a healthy and powerful Public Opinion, for, to quote an Italian 

 phrase, Public Opinion is the "Queen of the World;'' or, to 

 adopt the words of the late Lord Palmerston — 



" Public Opinion, if founded in truth and justice, i.s more powerful than the 

 musketry of infantry, the charge of cavalry, or the fire of artillery." 



I heard Mr. Bright, in one of his great speeches, addressed to 

 his constituents at Birmingham in 1869, declare; 



