FIFTH NATIONAL CONSERVATION CONGRESS 341 



The settlement of this important question will come from a full understand- 

 ing of this difficult problem and by a fair compelling meeting with the Federal 

 Government of constructive minds that are biased neither by dividends nor 

 elections. 



Section III 



ECONOMICS OF TIMBER SUPPLY IN RELATION TO PRODUCTION AND 



CONSUMPTION 



{Prepared at the Request of the Sub-committee by E. T. Allen, Member of 

 the General Committee on Forestry.*) 



INTRODUCTION 



THE standing timber of the national forests, while probably less than a 

 fifth of the total under all forms of ownership in the United States, is 

 sufficient to be of tremendous importance not only as a source of supply 

 but also in the long run as a factor in the market. Since it is the greatest sujiply 

 under a single control, with that control vested in the public, its management 

 will inevitably affect profoundly the management of existing private and State 

 holdings, especially as the aggregate supply is reduced and as the present keen 

 competition among private owners becomes lessened. At the same time the 

 relation of its management to reforestation and future supply makes considera- 

 tion of existing conditions exceedingly complicated. 



It is obvious that no disposal policy which may be adopted by the govern- 

 ment can give universal satisfaction. Private lumbermen who have no timber 

 of their own and can buy and operate national forest material more advantage- 

 ously than they can other timber, or who think such a policy will cheapen other 

 timber they desire, may advocate an extensive selling policy. So may heavy 

 owners of private timber who desire to operate but prefer to hold their own 

 until it is worth more. A contrary view is naturally held by those who have 

 most to fear from immediate lowering of stumpage or lumber prices. These 

 include those who are responsible for revenue from other public forest lands, 

 like State and Indian lands, as well as private owners. From a less direct view- 

 point there are those who, mistakenly believing that a policy of large and cheap 

 sales will lower the retail price of lumber today, regard only the immediate 

 consumer and are without sympathy for either the lumber industry or the future 

 consumer, and just as many who believe with better knowledge of present com- 

 petitive conditions that the future consumer is in greatest danger and should 

 be protected by a holding policy that will insure a supply for his relief at the 

 time when prices are really burdensome and more in peril of monopolistic control. 

 As a principle of administrative stewardship, there are those who urge extensive 

 sales, at prices which will assure them, in order to balance administrative ex- 



* Since this subject is not only highly technica! in some of its aspects, but also involves 

 policy questions somewhat embarrassing for joint discussion by all interests represented on 

 both committees, it was believed best to assign its preliminary treatment to Mr. Allen as 

 a disinteresed authority. 



